Researchers Laura M. Grupp and Steven Swanson from the UCSD Non-volatile Systems Lab and John D. Davis of Microsoft Research collected data from 45 flash chips from 6 manufacturers. Using that empirical data they predict the performance and cost characteristics of future SSDs.
It’s not pretty.
While density, capacity and cost per bit improves with smaller feature sizes, the research found that every other figure of merit - performance, program/erase endurance, energy efficiency, and data retention time - all got worse as feature sizes shrink.
Based on past performance, the team derived equations to describe how changes in feature size have impacted key specs. They looked at SLC, MLC and TLC and feature sizes scaled from 72 nm to 6.5 nm (the consensus smallest feature size published in the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS0), and assume a fixed silicon budget for flash storage.
Key results include
Latency. MLC write latency will double over time. Triple-level cell writes will grow to over 2.5MS, noticably reducing its performance advantage over disk writes.
Bandwidth. Small - 512B - read bandwidth and all writes decline by up to 50% over time. The impact is greatest on high-performance SLC flash.
IOPS. MLC flash I/O rates will drop almost in half.
Taken together the research suggests that flash may be not much better than disk in a few short years.
Principalmente com o aumento dos preços dos HDDs por causa das cheias na tailandia os SSDs estão a ganhar algum mercado e não tenho duvidas que brevemente irão ter preços muito mais competitivos do que actualmente têm.
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