03-08-2015, 12:13 #1
BC Focus: Dolar R$ 3,35; inflação preços administrados 15%
Mercado volta a elevar projeção para inflação e diminuir a do PIB
Pela segunda semana consecutiva, o Relatório de Mercado Focus trouxe um aumento nas projeções para a taxa de câmbio. O documento, atualizado esta manhã pelo Banco Central, mostra que a mediana das estimativas para o câmbio em 2015 passou de R$ 3,25 para R$ 3,35.
A perspectiva de recuperação da atividade no ano que vem também segue debilitada. Ficou em 0,20% nesta segunda-feira, mesmo número da semana anterior. Um mês antes, estava em 0,50%. O BC, apesar de também ter revisado para pior sua projeção, de queda de 0,6% para retração de 1,1%, segue mais otimista que o mercado. No Relatório Trimestral de Inflação de junho, a instituição informou que a mudança ocorreu em função de piora nas perspectivas para a indústria, cuja expectativa de PIB recuou de -2,3% para -3,0%.
Segundo o BC, essa piora foi influenciada por impactos das reduções projetadas para a indústria de transformação, de -3,4% para -6%, e para a produção e distribuição de eletricidade, água e gás, de -1,4% para -5,6%.
Para o setor de serviços, a autoridade monetária, que até março via uma ligeira expansão de +0,1% em 2015, passou a projetar queda de -0,8%.
No boletim Focus desta segunda-feira, a projeção para a produção industrial foi mantida negativa em -5%.
Última edição por 5ms; 03-08-2015 às 12:23.
03-08-2015, 17:33 #2
Financial Times: Brazil breaking records in all the wrong ways
The boardroom of heavy vehicle maker MAN in São Paulo is decorated with a Boys’ Own collection of model trucks, soccer balls and the jerseys of local football teams.
But the toys do little to lift the mood here. Once a champion of the Brazilian corporate world with double-digit growth rates, the truck industry, like the national football team which was thrashed by Germany in last year’s World Cup, has fallen on hard times.
In the first six months of this year, truck and bus production fell 45 per cent compared with a year earlier. It is a disaster that is expected to be repeated across Latin America’s biggest economy this year.
“In my professional life, I’ve already passed through 17 [economic] crises,” says Roberto Cortes, chief executive officer of Volkswagen-owned MAN Latin America, ticking off on his fingers various episodes of financial tumult, from Mexico’s “tequila crisis” of 1994 to Lehman Brothers in 2008. “This is yet another one. And it’s one that is very specific to Brazil.”
The country has gone from being a motor of the world economy as one of the fast-growing so-called Bric nations to the sick man of the large emerging markets. Unemployment is soaring, business confidence plummeting. Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agency, is considering cutting its investment grade rating to junk. The country is breaking records in all the wrong ways. “We think the current recession will prove Brazil’s worst in recent history, at least since quarterly data started to be collected in 1996,” says BNP Paribas, which is predicting a contraction in gross domestic product this year of 2.5 per cent, down from positive 0.1 per cent last year. Among large emerging markets, only Russia is expected to do worse this year, according to International Monetary Fund GDP forecasts.
Rousseff in firing line
Only six months into her second four-year term, Dilma Rousseff is suffering from the lowest ratings of any president in Brazil’s recent democratic history. Worse, the weak economy is jeopardising the prized achievement of her left-leaning ruling Workers’ party, or PT, during its 13 years in power — the creation of a vast new lower-middle class. The fragile hold on prosperity of this group is at risk — and along with it her grip on power.
The recession comes as prosecutors are probing mostly ruling coalition politicians in a growing scandal at state-owned oil company Petrobras. Known as Car Wash, the investigation has fuelled calls for her impeachment and is placing not only Ms Rousseff`s legacy at risk but also that of the PT.
“Since the second round of the election, the government has not been able to produce one piece of good news,” says Renato Meirelles, head of market research firm Data Popular.
Economists say there is one thing going for Brazil: that the current recession is just that — a cyclical downturn rather than a full-blown crisis of the type that the country suffered in the 1980s and 1990s.
Brazil is not undergoing a current account or a currency crisis — it has foreign exchange reserves of about $369bn, among the biggest stockpiles in the world. Like several other large emerging markets, Brazil is suffering from the end of the commodities super-cycle amid retreating demand from China as well as the exhaustion of a domestic credit boom. But the depth of the hangover is being blamed on attempts by Ms Rousseff — in her first term — to prolong the party via price controls and a largely ineffective stimulus programme. Brazil recorded its first primary fiscal deficit — the budget balance before interest payments — in a decade in 2014.
Its fiscal largesse has led to a toxic situation of low growth and high inflation, forcing the central bank to jack up its benchmark interest rate to 14.25 per cent last week — higher than in any other large economy. It was its eighth rise in 11 months.
“This is more a traditional recession related to the economic cycle than one of those crises that we had in the past,” says Caio Megale, economist with Itau Unibanco. “The problem is the economic cycle is being intensified by the policy exaggerations of the past . . . and by operation Car Wash.”
To turn things round, Ms Rousseff appointed a hawkish finance minister, Chicago-trained Joaquim Levy, late last year. He began by promising to restore the primary surplus, a key measure of the health of public finances, to 1.2 per cent of GDP. He reined in subsidised lending by the state banks and cut some social and employment benefits. But most of the savings so far have come from cutting public investment — something Brazil with its poor infrastructure actually needs if it is to grow again.
“The fiscal issue in Brazil is not only a problem of debt but also a problem of the quality of spending,” says José Augusto Coelho Fernandes, policy and strategy director at the Confederation of National Industry.
The combination of tighter fiscal and monetary policy has intensified the downturn. Unemployment hit 6.9 per cent in June, up from 4.8 per cent a year earlier. The slower growth has crushed tax revenue, forcing Mr Levy last week to backtrack on the government’s targets for the primary fiscal surplus. He cut it to just 0.15 per cent of GDP in 2015 and reduced it in the coming years to levels below what economists believe are necessary to stabilise public debt.
Standard & Poor’s responded by reducing the outlook on Brazil’s investment grade rating, which is one notch above junk, to negative. The other agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, are expected to reduce their ratings if there is no improvement in the economic and political climate.
“This may move the needle in the ratings agencies in terms of re-evaluating the credit worthiness of the sovereign as we go into 2016 and 2017 because the debt dynamics are not improving,” says Alberto Ramos, economist with Goldman Sachs.
03-08-2015, 17:34 #3
Business vs government
Mr Ramos argues Brazil will need deeper fiscal reform to trim a state that last year spent 42 per cent of GDP — an amount comparable with developed countries. The argument is that only with a more efficient state will Brazil be able to lift productivity, revive economic growth and compete globally.
In Brazil’s statist economic model reining in the government often also means hurting business, so closely are the two interlinked. MAN’s Mr Cortes says the industry is not just suffering from a weak economy, it is being hurt by the government’s austerity programme. Infrastructure cutbacks have reduced the need for heavy vehicles in the economy but the government has also slashed its own purchases of equipment, from army trucks to school buses.
The government has also tightened the terms of an incentive programme in which buyers of trucks were offered subsidised loans. “So it is now more difficult to justify investing in new trucks,” says Mr Cortes. The company has launched a voluntary redundancy programme and temporary layoffs.
In another country, the automotive industry might be able to take advantage of a deep depreciation of the currency — Brazil’s real has been touching 12-year lows against the dollar — by stepping up exports. But state interference in the truck industry requiring high levels of locally produced content has undermined its competitiveness. To qualify for subsidised financing, for instance, Brazilian truck makers must incorporate local content of up to 60 per cent in their vehicles measured both by value and by weight, producers say.
Middle class trap
The crisis is hurting job opportunities for school and university leavers, in particular, and threatening to drive the new lower-middle class, which has emerged during PT rule, back into poverty, economists say. Agostinho Pascalicchio, economist at Mackenzie Presbyterian University, says a survey showing 65 per cent of those aged 16 to 24 want to leave Brazil for developed countries chimes with his own experience.
Fabio Mauricio, a 24-year-old civil engineer, has been seeking work since graduating a year ago but a freeze in civil construction has made finding a job impossible. Even his colleagues working as estagiarios — effectively interns — are being laid off.
Mr Mauricio believes President Rousseff’s PT has become too comfortable after more than 12 years in power. However, the opposition PSDB, a centrist party that is seen as more pro-business, is not much better, he says. “Both sides are involved in corruption, so there is nowhere to escape to.”
While such sentiments reflect rising discontent not only with Ms Rousseff but with the political class, analysts say, the president is the one in the hot seat, with 63 per cent of the population supporting calls for her impeachment, according to a poll by CNT/MDA released last week.
She faced mass street protests earlier this year and more are planned for later this month. Prosecutors in the Car Wash investigation, in which former Petrobras executives are accused of collaborating with contractors to pay bribes to politicians, are slowly zeroing in on her ruling coalition. Even her mentor, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is facing a criminal probe. With each advance of the investigations, the political gridlock in Brasilia deepens as her allies put pressure on her to do something to protect them.
While analysts believe an impeachment remains unlikely as her coalition partners would prefer to let her take the flak for the poor economy and the Petrobras fallout, the growing differences with congress are threatening to prolong the fiscal adjustment, economists say. This could in turn delay a recovery — BNP Paribas in its report titled “See you in 2017” is predicting the economy will shrink a further 0.5 per cent next year.
“Is Brazil today living through an economic crisis? Yes,” says Mr Meirelles. “But the biggest crisis in Brazil is not this. The biggest crisis in Brazil lies elsewhere. It is a vacuum of leadership.”
For Ms Rousseff, the strategy will be to survive the next year or so and hope for an economic recovery. There are already signs the central bank’s tight monetary policy is acting to reduce inflation. If this can be brought under control next year, the chokehold of high interest rates can start to be eased, allowing the economy to breathe again.
The same hope is shared by executives at MAN. It may be too little too late, but Brazil is trying to do the right things, says Mr Cortes. “In 2016, the economy may not recover but it will start to recover and things will return to normal in two years,” he argues. “The fundamentals of the economy are reasonable. We cannot compare [Brazil] with Argentina, Bolivia or Venezuela.”
Additional reporting by Samantha Pearson and Aline Rocha in Sao Paulo
03-08-2015, 17:53 #4“We think the current recession will prove Brazil’s worst in recent history, at least since quarterly data started to be collected in 1996,” says BNP Paribas, which is predicting a contraction in gross domestic product this year of 2.5 per cent, down from positive 0.1 per cent last year.
BTW economistas do Itau e Credit Suisse também estão estimando queda de 2,5% no PIB de 2015. Imagine o PIB per capita ...
Última edição por 5ms; 03-08-2015 às 18:01.
03-08-2015, 19:30 #5
Economia ainda pior que no ano passado
O cenário traçado pelos grandes bancos para o 4o. trim é um filme de terror: queda de 5% da economia em comparação com o mesmo período de 2014, que já não havia sido grandes coisas.
Por Lauro Jardim
03-08-2015, 21:09 #6
Dólar atinge R$ 3,46
Segundo dados preliminares, o Ibovespa, principal índice, caiu 1,43%, a 50.138 pontos.
O dólar subiu quase 1% e fechou esta segunda-feira cotado a 3,45 reais. A valorização da moeda americana frente ao real ocorre após o Banco Central sinalizar que não vai aumentar a sua intervenção no câmbio para impedir a alta da divisa. Este é o terceiro dia seguido de avanço da moeda, o maior desde 20 de março de 2003, quando encerrou o pregão valendo 3,47 reais.
Na máxima da sessão de hoje, a divisa chegou a atingir 3,46 reais. Só em julho, o dólar avançou mais de 10%; e no ano, já acumula alta de quase 30%.
Nesta segunda-feira, o mercado de câmbio também foi impactado pelos receios em relação ao cenário político do país, após a prisão do ex-ministro José Dirceu na 17ª fase da Operação Lava Jato. "A prisão (de Dirceu) pode reverberar no Planalto e aumenta ainda mais a sensação de incerteza aqui", disse o operador de uma corretora nacional, sob condição de anonimato. O Ministério Público Federal apontou o mensaleiro como um dos "instituidores" e "principais líderes" do esquema de corrupção na Petrobras quando ele foi titular da Casa Civil no Palácio do Planalto.
Em meio a esse cenário, os agentes econômicos esperam mais turbulências para os próximos dias, quando o Legislativo deve votar medidas que aumentam os gastos da União e afetam o ajuste fiscal, motivando cautela nas mesas de operação.
A perspectiva para o curto prazo ainda é a de escalada do dólar, com o cenário político interno no centro das atenções. "As tensões políticas têm pesado muito e devem continuar assim", afirmou o especialista em câmbio da Icap Corretora, Italo Abucater, para quem a moeda pode subir a 3,80 reais no curto prazo. "Não temos nada no horizonte para favorecer uma queda do dólar", disse.
Pesou ainda sobre o dólar a indicação do BC de que não pretende aumentar sua atuação no mercado. "O BC deixou claro que não vale a pena brigar contra a alta do dólar", avaliou o superintendente de câmbio da corretora TOV, Reginaldo Siaca.
O mercado de câmbio também tem sido pressionado pelo cenário externo, com apreensão sobre a desaceleração da economia chinesa diante do tombo das bolsas do país e pela perspectiva de alta de juros nos Estados Unidos, que podem atrair para a maior economia do mundo recursos aplicados no mercado local.
Bovespa - A bolsa de valores de São Paulo fechou o dia em queda, pressionada principalmente pelo recuo das ações do Bradesco, que anunciou nesta segunda a aquisição do HSBC Brasil por, por 5,2 bilhões de dólares. Os analistas esperavam que a compra seria fechada por 4 bilhões de dólares e a consideraram cara demais para o Bradesco.
Além disso, a queda foi motivada pela retração dos papéis da Petrobras, que acompanharam o declínio do petróleo. Segundo dados preliminares, o Ibovespa, principal índice, caiu 1,43%, a 50.138 pontos. O giro financeiro totalizava 4,44 bilhões de reais.
Última edição por 5ms; 03-08-2015 às 21:13.
04-08-2015, 17:25 #7
Dólar opera em alta pelo 4º dia seguido e passa de R$ 3,48; Bolsa cai
O dólar comercial operava em alta pela 4ª sessão seguida nesta terça-feira (4), enquanto a Bovespa caía. Por volta das 14h50, a moeda norte-americana tinha ganhos de 0,83%, para R$ 3,483 na venda; no mesmo momento, o Ibovespa, principal índice da Bolsa, perdia 0,58%, a 49.847,66 pontos.
04-08-2015, 18:30 #8
- Data de Ingresso
- Jul 2011
Cunha x Dilma.
Combinação nada legal para o Dólar.
04-08-2015, 19:09 #9