Tópico: Fitch rebaixa nota do Brasil
15-10-2015, 13:27 #1
Fitch rebaixa nota do Brasil
Nota foi revisada de 'BBB' para 'BBB-', com perspectiva negativa.
Agência cita crescente peso da dívida e a piora do cenário econômico
A agência de classificação de risco Fitch rebaixou a nota do Brasil de "BBB" para "BBB-", mas ainda dentro do grau de investimento. A perspectiva foi mantida em negativa, o que significa que o país pode voltar a ser rebaixado em um futuro próximo.
A nota "BBB-" é a última dentro do chamado grau de investimento, espécie de selo de país bom pagador de sua divida. Veja quadro mais abaixo
De acordo com a Fitch, o rebaixamento reflete o crescente peso da dívida do governo do Brasil, o aumento dos desafios para a consolidação fiscal e a piora do cenário para o crescimento econômico. "O ambiente político está dificultando o andamento da agenda legislativa [do Congresso], criando um ciclo negativo para a economia", disse a agência.
A Fitch explicou que a perspectiva negativa reflete a visão de que o fraco desempenho econômico e fiscal persiste enquanto as incertezas políticas continuam pesando sobre os níveis de confiança e prejudicando os investimentos e o crescimento.
No início de setembro, o Brasil perdeu o grau de investimento na classificação de crédito da Standard and Poor's (S&P).
Com o rebaixamento da Fitch, o Brasil fica mais próximo de ter a nota de crédito da sua dívida rebaixada para o grau especulativo por mais de uma agência. Na classificação da Moody´s, o país tem nota "Baa3", nível mais baixo dentro do grau de investimento, tambem com perspectiva negativa (como agora na Fitch).
Selo de bom pagador
O grau de investimento é um selo de qualidade que assegura aos investidores um menor risco de calotes. A partir da nota de risco que determinado país recebeu, os investidores podem avaliar se a possibilidade de ganhos (por exemplo, com juros maiores) compensa o risco de perder o capital investido com a instabilidade econômica local.
Alguns fundos de pensão internacionais, de países da Europa ou os Estados Unidos, por exemplo, seguem a regra de que só se pode investir em títulos de países que estão classificados com grau de investimento por agências internacionais. Por isso, essa "nota" permite que o país receba recursos de investidores interessados em aplicar seu dinheiro naquele local.
Última edição por 5ms; 15-10-2015 às 13:31.
15-10-2015, 13:32 #2
15-10-2015, 13:40 #3
PR: Fitch Downgrades Brazil to 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative
NEW YORK, Oct 15, 2015 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Fitch Ratings has downgraded Brazil's sovereign ratings as follows:
--Long-term foreign and local currency IDRs to 'BBB-'from 'BBB'; Outlook remains Negative;
--Senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds to 'BBB-' from 'BBB';
--Country Ceiling to 'BBB' from 'BBB+';
--Short-term foreign-currency IDR to 'F3' from 'F2'.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The rating downgrade reflects Brazil's rising government debt burden, increased challenges to fiscal consolidation and a worsening economic growth backdrop. The difficult political environment is hampering progress on the government's legislative agenda and creating a negative feedback loop for the broader economy. The Negative Outlook reflects Fitch's view that economic and fiscal underperformance is likely to persist while political uncertainty could continue weighing on broader confidence, delay a turnaround in investment and growth, and increase risks for the medium term fiscal consolidation needed for debt stabilization.
The greater than anticipated impact of economic recession on government revenues, difficulty in implementing offsetting measures and a complicated political backdrop have undermined the government's fiscal consolidation strategy. Consequently, in July the government lowered the primary surplus targets materially for 2015 and beyond. In another setback to fiscal credibility, the government submitted a 2016 budget with an even weaker fiscal goal.
Although the government is working on certain tax and spending proposals to regain the fiscal path embedded in the July projections, considerable uncertainty remains on implementation especially in the context of the current political gridlock. Curbing mandatory spending is gaining importance in light of an already high tax burden and budgetary rigidities, limits to further cuts in discretionary spending and a shallow economic recovery. However, such measures will require broader political consensus and support, which may be difficult to obtain.
Fitch currently projects that the general government deficit will deteriorate to close to 9% of GDP in 2015 due to higher interest payments, partly reflecting the losses on FX swaps offered by the central bank. Average fiscal deficits during 2016-17 are forecasted to remain elevated at over 6% of GDP, based on Fitch's expectation that the government will have difficulty in reaching its stated primary surplus targets of 0.7% and 1.3% of GDP, in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Fitch forecasts a primary balance in 2016 and a surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2017, although downside risks persist to our forecasts. As a result, Fitch forecasts Brazil's general government debt burden to reach close to 70% of GDP by 2016 (significantly above the 'BBB' median of 43%) and will continue rising in 2017.
A deeper recession and net job destruction, reduced popularity of President Rousseff, tensions between the government and congress, expanding reach of Petrobras investigations and risks of presidential impeachment are clouding the political environment and creating governability challenges and policy uncertainty. This complicated political environment could continue constraining the government's ability to garner sufficient support on fiscal and microeconomic reforms that are needed to materially strengthen fiscal and growth prospects
Brazil's economic recession is likely to be deeper and longer than Fitch's earlier expectations and its performance has diverged materially from those of its rating peers. Medium-term prospects also look weak compared to peers and most other large emerging markets. Fitch forecasts that Brazil's economy will contract by 3% and 1%, respectively in 2015 and 2016 before recording modest growth in 2017, with risks skewed largely to the downside. Reduced confidence levels, the construction sector malaise, continued political and policy uncertainties have added to domestic economic woes, while the economy continues to feel the pinch from the external headwinds of lower commodity prices, weaker growth in main trading partners and increased international financial volatility.
Notwithstanding a deeper recession, inflation has remained under pressure, partly owing to increases in administered prices and the sharp BRL depreciation. IPCA inflation rate is currently hovering close to 10% (more than three times the 'BBB' median), and convergence with the peer median is unlikely even with the expected reduction in Brazil's inflation rate in 2016-17.
The BRL depreciation and the economic slump have helped reduce the current account deficit by 29% in USD terms during January-August compared with a year ago. This adjustment is important given the likelihood of weaker capital inflows during the forecast period. The sharp BRL depreciation has led to deterioration in external debt metrics, which were already being impacted by increased private sector external borrowing in recent years. However, solid international reserves position, established central bank tools to handle FX liquidity issues and use of corporate hedging are mitigating factors.
Brazil's 'BBB-' ratings are supported by its economic diversity and entrenched civil institutions, with its per capita income and governance indicators broadly in line with low investment grade sovereigns. The country's shock absorption capacity is boosted by its robust international reserves, a strong net sovereign external creditor position, deep and developed domestic government debt capital markets, an adequately capitalized banking system and a flexible exchange rate. The share of foreign currency debt in total general government debt remains low and prudent liability management has reduced interest rate and refinancing risks.
Finally, Brazil has shown some ability to correct course under difficult economic conditions, evident from the relative price adjustments, tightening of monetary policy and reining in of quasi-fiscal stimulus although implementation of policies to strengthen the outlook for public finances has suffered.
The main factors that could lead to a downgrade are:
--Further growth under-performance or difficulty in consolidating fiscal accounts leading to continued increases in government debt burden. Crystallization of material contingent liabilities would be negative.
--Continued political and governability risks that undermine policy making and dent confidence and growth prospects.
--Erosion of international reserves and deterioration of government debt composition.
The Outlook is Negative. Consequently, Fitch's sensitivity analysis does not currently anticipate developments with a high likelihood of leading to a positive rating change. Future developments that could individually, or collectively, result in a stabilization of the Outlook include:
--Fiscal consolidation that leads to greater confidence in the government's capacity to stabilize the debt burden.
--Improved investment and growth environment and a reduction in macroeconomic imbalances.
--A better political environment that is conducive for boosting credibility of policies and reform prospects.
The ratings and Outlooks are sensitive to a number of assumptions:
--Fitch assumes that China (an important trading partner for Brazil) will manage a gradual slowdown, growing by 6.8%m 6.3% and 5.5% in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively, thus providing limited upside for commodity prices. Argentina's economic performance (key destination of manufacturing exports) is likely to remain subdued over the forecast period.
--Fitch assumes that Brazil maintains international and domestic market access even if there is return of higher international financial volatility and further domestic confidence shocks.
--Fitch assumes that political uncertainty will continue to hamper progress on the government's legislative agenda.
Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com
Sovereign Rating Criteria (pub. 12 Aug 2014)
Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form
15-10-2015, 13:44 #4
Fitch Cuts Brazil Rating to Cusp of Junk With Negative Outlook
Fitch Ratings cut Brazil’s debt rating to the cusp of junk, citing deteriorating government finances, delivering the fourth downgrade for the country during President Dilma Rousseff’s time in office.
Brazil’s credit rating was lowered one step to BBB-, the lowest investment grade, with a negative outlook, Fitch said in a statement, citing the government’s rising debt burden, difficulty in shoring up its budget and a slumping economy. Standard & Poor’s cut the country to junk on Sept. 9 while Moody’s Investors Service moved Brazil to the lowest investment grade in August.
The downgrade comes as prospects worsen for Latin America’s largest economy amid persistent above-target inflation, forecasts for the longest recession since the 1930s and a rout in the country’s stocks and currency. Meanwhile, Rousseff is struggling to find supporters in Congress for her plans to shore up the budget amid record-low popularity driven by a sweeping investigation into allegations of graft at the state-controlled oil producer.
“Economic and fiscal underperformance is likely to persist while political uncertainty could continue weighing on broader confidence,” Fitch said in a statement.
15-10-2015, 13:51 #5
- Data de Ingresso
- Apr 2012
= dolar a 5 dilmas...
15-10-2015, 13:53 #6
15-10-2015, 14:27 #7
O editorial do Estadão resumiu bem a coisa:
Os irresponsáveis - Geral - Estadão
14 Outubro 2015 | 02h 45
O governo de Dilma Rousseff encontrou seu judas. É o ministro da Fazenda, Joaquim Levy, apontado há tempos pela “base” petista como o responsável pela desgraça nacional. Antes restrito à arraia-miúda petista, esse movimento para fulanizar a crise foi abraçado pela cúpula do governo de Dilma, que nunca se convenceu da necessidade de ajustar a economia para fazer o Brasil retomar o caminho do desenvolvimento. O “neoliberal” Levy torna-se assim a desculpa perfeita para a lambança que está sendo concebida no Planalto: mandar às favas os escrúpulos fiscais e retomar a agenda populista da gastança desenfreada que, esta sim, empurrou o País para o abismo econômico.
Em artigo no Estado no último domingo, o ex-ministro da Fazenda Pedro Malan chamou a atenção para essa operação. “A impressão (...) é que há no ar um ‘movimento’ em gestação, por ora em fogo brando, mas consistente, para, eventualmente, atribuir à política econômica ‘do ministro Levy’ – não do governo do PT, de Dilma e de Lula – a responsabilidade pelo desolador quadro atual: desemprego em forte alta, na direção de ultrapassar os 10% em 2016, e inflação beirando os 10% em 2015, comendo a renda real do trabalhador.”
Trata-se, portanto, de uma maneira de atribuir a doença do paciente ao único remédio realmente eficaz para curar seu mal. É como se a crise tivesse começado agora, com as medidas de Levy – que nem foram totalmente aplicadas –, e não quando o governo petista adotou as políticas “anticíclicas”, a partir de 2007, nas quais o Estado assumiu o papel de motor do desenvolvimento, com insuportável custo para o Tesouro.
15-10-2015, 15:51 #8
15-10-2015, 18:12 #9
- Data de Ingresso
- Jul 2011
O mercado já precificou esta queda. Acredito que não terá tantos efeitos como as demais.
Agora se continuar esta briguinha Dilma x Cunha ajuda a piorar um cenário que já esta ruim de uma forma geral para empresas/indústrias no Brasil.
15-10-2015, 19:19 #10