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  1. #1
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    [EN] China adds G20-sized economy every year

    Another way to appreciate the sheer size of the Chinese economy — and just how much bigger it continues to get every year — is to compare the annual nominal increase with the sizes of other national economies.



    Yuan Yang in London and Tom Mitchell in Beijing | Financial Times
    January 19, 2016

    China’s economy grew 6.9 per cent last year, according to official figures released on Tuesday, the slowest pace since 1990.

    Growth in the Asian powerhouse has fallen markedly in recent years, with real gross domestic product expanding at less than half the pace of 2007. The ruling Communist party projects an average annual growth rate of 6.5 per cent over the next five years, in contrast to an average of more than 10 per cent in the first decade of the century.

    But while the global investment community tends to focus on the headline growth number, it is easy to forget that because China’s economy is so much bigger after its tremendous growth spurt, in terms of absolute growth it is still contributing more to the global economy than it did a decade ago.

    The first chart plots the dramatic decline in China’s headline growth number, from a peak of 14.2 per cent in 2007 to 7.3 per cent in 2014, against the annual nominal increase in the size of the country’s economy.

    On the eve of the global financial crisis in 2007, the annual increase in China’s nominal GDP was $793.3bn. In 2014 it was even bigger, at $864.2bn, despite the marked deceleration in economic growth.

    Another way to appreciate the sheer size of the Chinese economy — and just how much bigger it continues to get every year — is to compare the annual nominal increase with the sizes of other national economies.

    As shown by the chart below, if China’s increase in nominal output in 2007 was ranked as a country in its own right, it would have qualified for a seat at the G20, just ahead of Turkey (the 17th-largest economy at the time).



    In the wake of the crisis, the Chinese government unleashed a Rmb4tn stimulus that acted as a huge catalyst for its economy — spurring real growth from 9.2 per cent in 2009 to 10.6 per cent in 2010 — as well as global demand.



    Despite the marked slowdown since then — as the leadership team headed by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang embraced a “new normal” of slower, more sustainable and more environmentally friendly growth — China continues to contribute the equivalent of a large developing country to the global economy each year.

    When China’s output grew “only” at 7.3 per cent in 2014, its slowest rate of growth in almost a quarter century, the absolute increase in nominal output was again bigger than Turkey’s entire economy.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e97ae186-b...0e3d20eaf.html

  2. #2
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    Farewell to GDP obsession shows resolve for real reforms

    The slower growth did not come as a surprise. The Chinese government is well aware of the slowing economic expansion accompanied by falling industrial product prices, shrinking enterprise profits, waning fiscal revenue and rising financial risks, which are more structural than cyclical problems.


    BEIJING, Jan. 19 (Xinhua) -- The 6.9 percent GDP growth rate reported for 2015 falls within the "about seven percent" target set last March, underscoring the government's sophisticated insight and management of economic performance.

    China's weakest full-year growth in a quarter of a century should not be deemed as a setback, but a rebalancing act for a more vibrant comeback.

    Avoiding whitewashing or lament over these disappointing figures, China is facing the challenges squarely and knows well that the lackluster numbers do not tell the whole story.

    Against international and domestic trade and financial market headwinds, the Chinese economy, with an economic volume of over ten trillion U.S. dollars, sailed rather smoothly in 2015, with impressive employment conditions and income rises for urban and rural residents.

    The 6.9 percent economic expansion rate is an impressive figure from a global perspective, with China contributing more than 2 percent to global economic growth last year.

    Meanwhile, with a gradual, steady rebalancing of the growth model taking shape, the Chinese economy has great resilience, huge potential and ample room for readjustment.

    The conditions supporting high productivity remain stable. China's employed population amounts for about 70 percent of the total population, offering abundant a workforce for continued growth despite a marginal drop since 2014.

    The country also continues to enjoy abundant capital reserves with an average national deposit ratio at more than 40 percent for the past twelve years.

    The housing market is undoubtedly in bad shape currently, but the glut will be gradually digested over time thanks to accelerating urbanization.

    While property sales and factory construction are slowing, the rising middle class are eagerly spending money on healthcare, overseas travel and movie tickets. The government bid to rebalance the economy toward consumption has received a boost from services, which account for over 50 percent of GDP, the first time in history .

    Uneven regional growth also means more potential in investment and consumption. The government's decision to lift more than 70 million poor Chinese out of poverty will unleash a continual stream of fresh growth.

    In addition, China has taken unprecedented steps, from subsidies to venture capital financing, to promote innovation and entrepreneurship as new growth engines.

    The economic numbers might continue to look undesirable in years to come, especially for sectors burdened with overcapacity. There will be a tough battle ahead to deepen reforms. The Chinese leadership, however, is determined to get real with reforms despite short-term pains.

    Firms in industries facing overcapacity will merger or go bankrupt. The bloated state-owned enterprises will be streamlined. The government will be committed to pushing forward structural reforms, especially on the supply side, to reduce overcapacity, destock, deleverage, lower cost and shore up weak growth areas.

    Of course there will be no miraculous V-shape economic recovery, but after painstaking structural reforms, the world can expect a more sustainable and vibrant Chinese economy.
    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20..._135023510.htm

  3. #3
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    Chinese personal income rises 7.4 pct in 2015

    BEIJING, Jan. 19 (Xinhua) -- China's national per capita disposable income stood at 21,966 yuan (3,349 U.S. dollars) in 2015, up 7.4 percent from 2014 in real terms, outpacing GDP growth, official data showed Tuesday.

    Separately, urban per capita disposable income and rural per capita net income reached 31,195 yuan and 11,422 yuan respectively in 2015, up 6.6 percent and 7.5 percent in real terms after adjusting for inflation from 2014, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

    China's Gini coefficient, an index reflecting the rich-poor gap in which zero equals perfect equality, stood at 0.462 in 2015, dropping for seven years in a row after the index hit 0.491 in 2008, NBS data showed.

    The average monthly wage of rural migrant workers, who's population reached 277.5 million in 2015, was 3,072 yuan, an increase of 7.2 percent over the previous year.

    China aims to double its 2010 per capita income of urban and rural residents by 2020 to build a "moderately prosperous society".
    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20..._135023383.htm

  4. #4
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    Q: If renminbi (RMB) falls 10%, what happens to world GDP?

    A: Everyone loses (except China).



    The renminbi is the official currency of the People's Republic of China.The yuan (¥) is the basic unit of the renminbi

    With China’s currency likely to depreciate this year due to persistent outflows, a slowing economy and expectations that monetary policy will be loosened, it’s worth asking what the effects on world growth will be.

    Alessandro Theiss, an economist at Oxford Economics, has done the modelling. He finds that if China’s currency fell another 10 per cent by the third quarter, world GDP would decelerate -but not by much. He expects global growth to remain flat at 2.5 per cent, versus an acceleration to 2.6 per cent otherwise.

    Not surprisingly, China’s trading rivals in Asia would be see the biggest adverse impact, as Chinese producers gain a competitive advantage. Japan, Mr Theiss notes, would see a “double whammy” because of additional yen appreciation. (In recent weeks the yen has gained more than 5 per cent against the dollar, hitting its highest intraday level since August and its highest closing level in a year).



    Disinflationary impacts would be muted, as would most foreign exchange rates, but some central banks would be likely to cut interest rates. The Fed, which is expected to lift rates twice this year, would instead only hike once.

    All in all, this seems pretty benign. But this is only the first scenario, which assumes minimal forex moves. In an alternative model that includes foreign exchange spillover effects — which, let’s be honest, seems far more likely given how uppity markets have been in recent weeks — the forecasts are worse.



    Note that under this scenario, China hardly benefits, though a number of rivals do (see Korea and Taiwan) thanks to substantial depreciation in their currencies boosting competitiveness.

    To conclude: a one-tenth fall for the depreciation shouldn’t, on its own, cause much flux in the world economy. But if the move triggers a currency war — whether driven by policy-makers, or by markets on their behalf — the effects on GDP “would be more substantial and differentiated.”



    He concludes:

    Some countries would see substantially lower growth, including the Eurozone and Japan, where effective exchange rates appreciate. On the other hand, some countries could benefit substantially from sizeable depreciations. But China itself would not. This finding lends credibility to the Chinese authorities’ insistence that they do not wish to engineer a competitive devaluation.

    http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/01/19/...-to-world-gdp/

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