Resultados 1 a 7 de 7
  1. #1
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    [EN] Brazil bears brunt of IMF downgrades

    That’s quite the red pen.

    The International Monetary Fund’s new economic output forecasts for Brazil are not pretty. It now says it expects the economy to shrink by 3.5 per cent in 2016, shedding 2.5 percentage points relative to its forecast in October. For 2017, it expects a reading of a big fat zero, a decline of 2.3 percentage points.

    Those are the biggest downgrades for any of the countries listed on its overview. They also make up for a large chunk of the more modest global growth forecast revision, where the IMF shaved its forecast by 0.2 percentage points.

    It said on Tuesday:

    The revisions are largely accounted for by Brazil, where the recession caused by political uncertainty amid continued fallout from the Petrobras investigation is proving to be deeper and more protracted than previously expected; the Middle East, where prospects are hurt by lower oil prices; and the United States, where growth momentum is now expected to hold steady rather than gather further steam.

    The IMF now sees Russia’s economy shrinking by 1 per cent this year, down by 0.4 percentage points relative to earlier estimates. For the US, forecasts are down by 0.2 percentage points to a still upbeat 2.6 per cent this year and next.

  2. #2
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    IMF warns global growth could be 'derailed' over the next two years

    The IMF's world economic outlook update confirms what some economists have been warning about for months – growth is lacklustre in developing economies, and is contracting in countries such as Russia, Brazil, and Latin America.

    January 19, 2016 - 9:40PM
    Gareth Hutchens

    The move will wipe away billions of dollars in potential global GDP.

    Global growth could be "derailed" over the next two years if key transitions in the world economy are not successfully navigated, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

    It has surprisingly downgraded its predictions for global growth for 2016 and 2017, cutting growth estimates by 0.2 percentage points across the board for advanced economies, for emerging markets, and for the world, over both years.

    The move will wipe away billions of dollars in potential global GDP, leaving the Turnbull government with an even tougher task when preparing its May budget.

    The IMF says ongoing problems with China's economic rebalancing, the huge fall in global commodity prices and rising US interest rates are seriously hampering global growth efforts.

    "This coming year is going to be a year of great challenges and policymakers should be thinking about short-term resilience and the ways they can bolster it, but also about the longer-term growth prospects," IMF economic counsellor and director of research Maurice Obstfeld warned on Tuesday.

    "Unless the key transitions in the world economy are successfully navigated, global growth could be derailed."

    The IMF's world economic outlook update confirms what some economists have been warning about.

    The IMF's world economic outlook update confirms what some economists have been warning about for months – growth is lacklustre in developing economies, and is contracting in countries such as Russia, Brazil, and Latin America.

    The IMF revisions show global growth of 3.4 per cent in 2016 (down from 3.6 per cent in October) and 3.6 per cent in 2017 (down from 3.8 per cent in October).

    They also show the US economy growing by 2.6 per cent in 2016 and 2017, down from 2.8 per cent, and the eurozone growing by just 1.7 per cent, down from 1.8 per cent.

    The IMF forecast a 'year of great challenges'.

    The Turnbull government's recent mid-year budget update already revised Australia's real GDP growth downwards for 2015‑16, from the budget forecast of 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent.

    Treasurer Scott Morrison told Fairfax Media he was "keenly aware of the strong headwinds" impacting the global economy and the revisions to global growth forecasts by the IMF were not unanticipated.

    "In the mid-year budget update last year, the government recognised these changes taking place in the global economy by revising our own growth forecasts to more realistically reflect the conditions we are now facing," Mr Morrison said.

    "The forecasts announced by the IMF for global growth today are consistent with those contained in that update.

    "More importantly, the IMF statement rightly points to the need for important structural reforms to drive economic growth. Failure to make these important changes puts jobs at risk. This is why the government is looking at ways we can make our tax system more growth friendly, in particular by reducing personal income taxes."

    The IMF report comes as new figures showed China's economy grew at its slowest pace for 25 years in the three months to December.

    The report says there is an "urgent need" for policymakers to raise actual and potential growth through a mix of demand support and structural reforms, and that structural reforms, in particular, remain critical.

    "Priorities vary, but many advanced economies would benefit from reforms to strengthen labour force participation (Japan, euro area) and overall employment levels (given ageing populations), as well as measures to tackle private debt overhangs," the report says.

    "Policymakers in emerging markets and developing economies need to redirect activity to new sources of growth. Lifting growth will also ensure continued convergence towards advanced economy income levels."

  3. #3
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    China’s mess leads Brazil further into crisis

    Investors can’t catch a break as the turmoil in Beijing pushes shares, currency down

    B. Bain & P. Sambo & F. Pacheco | Bloomberg

    SAO PAULO — For investors in Brazil battered by a terrible 2015, there was reason to believe January would provide a respite. With summer holidays in full gear and Congress in recess, developments in the political scandals that had roiled markets were put on hold.

    And then came China.

    The turmoil in Brazil’s largest trading partner sent its benchmark stock index down 8.2 percent in dollar terms to begin the year, making for the worst week in almost six months, as shares of commodity producers tumbled with raw materials to the lowest in more than a decade. The currency weakened past four per dollar, back to levels seen after Standard & Poor’s surprised investors by cutting Brazil to junk in September.

    Now stocks from Latin America’s largest economy are once again getting punished worse than emerging-market peers, adding to the pain investors have felt over five consecutive years of declines for the Ibovespa. The worsening slowdown in China is only making it more difficult for Brazil to pull itself out of its worst recession in more than a century amid soaring inflation, a widening fiscal deficit and efforts to impeach the president that are making the situation all the more chaotic.

    “The scenario is not pretty,” said Maarten-Jan Bakkum, a senior emerging-markets strategist at NN Investment Partners in The Hague with about US$206 billion under management. “I'm very worried about the external pressures on Brazil, the poor policy response and the political situation, which makes quick solutions unlikely. China will continue to slow, global liquidity will tighten and Brazil has had bad economic policies for too long.”

    The 15 percent selloff in Chinese stocks this year amid confusion over circuit-breaker procedures and bets on a weaker currency revived concerns over the Communist Party's ability to manage an economy set to grow at the weakest pace since 1990. Brazil’s exports to China totaled US$35.6 billion in 2015, about 19 percent of the total goods sent abroad, according to government data.

    The impact of China’s slump isn’t restricted to Brazil, of course. US equities capped the worst week since September 2011, while just five of 24 emerging market currencies have gained against the dollar.

    Growing problems

    But for Brazil, the China trouble comes while the country is already beset by its own problems. Inflation accelerated to a 12-year high in December, more than twice policy makers' target. Analysts estimate a 3.73 percent economic contraction in 2015, followed by a 2.99 percent decline in 2016. The recession deepened as some of the country’s largest companies get entangled in the largest corruption case in Brazil’s history, which has also worsened the political crisis as top ranked legislators came under investigation.

    Meanwhile, President Dilma Rousseff is fighting for her political survival after lawmakers initiated impeachment proceedings in December. The president and her opponents are currently at a standstill with the Supreme Court and Congress on recess until February 2.

    “It's a little bit cliched to say at this point, but it really is the perfect storm,” said Marianna Waltz, the managing director for the corporate finance group at Moody's Investors Service in Sao Paulo. “The slowdown in China hits Brazil directly. In Brazil, you have commodity producers and companies with a domestic focus, and now they're all in trouble — and we don't see that getting better.”

    For every Brazilian corporate rating upgrade in 2015, Moody’s cut five others.

    Commodities account for about 46 percent of Brazil's exports — prices for two of the largest, soybeans and iron ore, have dropped 16 percent and 41 percent, respectively, in the past 12 months. Brazil’s industrial production fell 2.4 percent in November, more than all analyst forecasts. Consumer confidence as measured by the Getulio Vargas Foundation reached a record low in December.

    Brazil’s real has dropped 1.5 percent this year after losing a third of its value last year, the worst performance among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The perception of risk in holding the country’s dollar bonds, as measured by credit-default swaps, is more than twice the average of the past five years. While Brazil's sovereign notes outperformed global peers last week, its corporate overseas bonds now have a higher yield than the average for junk-rated notes from developing nations.

    The recession is likely to continue to push asset prices lower, according to Simon Nocera, the chief investment officer at Lumen Advisors.

    Brazil “never really took advantage of the commodities super cycle, which provided them with all of the opportunity to make some changes from a fiscal point of view,” he said from Brasilia. “Now that the chicken is coming home to roost, you've got a very poor economic structural situation.”

  4. #4
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    Latam faces longest recession since 1980s

    Region will suffer its second straight year of economic contraction, IMF says

    Steve Johnson
    January 19, 2016

    Latin America will suffer a second straight year of recession in 2016, the first time it has seen back-to-back years of economic contraction for more than 30 years, the IMF said today.

    As recently as October, the IMF forecast in its half-yearly World Economic Outlook that Latin America and the Caribbean would see economic growth of 0.8 per cent in 2016, bouncing back from a projected 0.3 per cent contraction last year.

    But just weeks into the new year, the Washington-based body has slashed its forecast for the region by 1.1 percentage points, and now predicts a further 0.3 per cent contraction this year.

    If this was to happen it would be the first back-to-back contraction in gross domestic product since 1982 and 1983, the start of Latin America’s “lost decade”, when debt default and high inflation ravaged the region, as the first chart shows.

    The IMF said the sharp downgrade was driven by the unexpectedly deep recession in Brazil, and “economic stress elsewhere in the region”. As recently as April 2015 it had been predicting growth of 2 per cent across the region this year.

    The fund will not publish comprehensive country-by-country revisions until Friday, but did say that it now expects Brazil’s economy to contract by 3.5 per cent this year, rather than the 1 per cent it forecast in October (and the growth of 1 per cent it envisioned in April 2015).

    The country is currently suffering its deepest recession since the Great Depression, while a vast corruption scandal at Petrobras, the state-run oil company has led to the arrests of some of the country’s top politicians and business people.

    The IMF’s forecast for Mexico’s GDP growth has also been reduced a fraction, from 2.8 to 2.6 per cent. Between them, the two countries account for almost 58 per cent of the economic output of the Latam and Caribbean region.

    In October, the IMF said Venezuela’s economy was likely to contract by a further 6 per cent this year and that of Argentina by 0.7 per cent.

    However Chile, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia were predicted to enjoy GDP growth of between 2.5 and 3.5 per cent. Panama was tipped to be the strongest performer, with growth of 6.3 per cent.

    The revisions bring the IMF more into line with the forecasts of private sector economists, although it is now a touch more gloomy than the latter.

    According to data compiled by Consensus Economics, a survey firm, the median forecast is for Latin America’s economy to contract by 0.1 per cent this year and that of Brazil by 2.2 per cent.

    Edward Glossop, emerging market economist at Capital Economics, has a forecast of 0.3 per cent GDP growth across Latam this year, but says “it would not surprise us if there was a second year of recession”.

    “The region’s economic recovery is going to be very slow, gradual and fragile. You have monetary and fiscal policy tightening across most of the region,” he says.

    Mr Glossop is pencilling in contraction of 2.3 per cent in Brazil in 2016, but on a more upbeat note says “the recession in Brazil, to a certain degree, masks some success stories elsewhere. In the fourth quarter we started to see some modest pick-up in some of the Andes [nations] and Mexico.”

    He believes Chile’s economy will expand by 3 per cent year, helped by a “modest” recovery in industrial metal prices, as will that of Mexico, while Colombia will see 2.5 per cent growth, although the aggregate figure will be dragged down by a 1.5 per cent contraction in Argentina, he believes.

    Maarten-Jan Bakkum, senior emerging market strategist at NN Investment Partners, is more downbeat on Brazil, expecting the country’s recession to last until 2017.

    After Tuesday’s revisions, the IMF forecasts that Brazil’s economy will remain flat in 2017 (rather than growing by 2.3 per cent, as it said in October), when it sees growth across Latam and the Caribbean turning positive to the tune of 1.6 per cent, as the table indicates.

    Mr Bakkum sees the potential for recovery in Argentina, under Mauricio Macri, its new president, however, and is positive about Chile, Colombia and Peru.

    Overall, the IMF is now forecasting global growth of 3.4 per cent this year, down 0.2 percentage points from its October estimate, with advanced economies growing at 2.1, rather than 2.2 per cent.

    2015 Estimates Projections Difference from Oct 2015
    WEO projections
    2016 2017 2016 2017
    World output 3.1 3.4 3.6 -0.2 -0.2
    Advanced economies 1.9 2.1 2.1 -0.1 -0.1
    United States 2.5 2.6 2.6 -0.2 -0.2
    Euro area 1.5 1.7 1.7 0.1 0.0
    Emerging markets and developing economies 4.0 4.3 4.7 -0.2 -0.2
    Commonwealth of Independent States -2.8 0.0 1.7 -0.5 -0.3
    Emerging and developing Asia 6.6 6.3 6.2 -0.1 -0.1
    Latin America and the Caribbean -0.3 -0.3 1.6 -1.1 -0.7
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan 2.5 3.6 3.6 -0.3 -0.5
    Sub-Saharan Africa 3.5 4.0 4.7 -0.3 -0.2
    Low-income developing countries 4.6 5.6 5.9 -0.2 -0.2
    Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, Jan 2016

    Emerging economies are now projected to grow at 4.3, rather than 4.5 per cent. Aside from Latam, the biggest downgrades are for growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States (zero, rather than 0.5 per cent), the Middle East and North Africa (3.6 rather than 3.9 per cent) and sub-Saharan Africa (4 rather than 4.3 per cent), as the table shows.

    The IMF is a little more upbeat about 2017, when it sees global growth edging up to 3.6 per cent and that in emerging markets to 4.7 per cent.

    However Mr Bakkum forecasts that emerging market growth will actually slow from 4 per cent this year to 3.7 per cent in 2017.

    “Most people expect a sharp pick up, probably at the end of 2016, but I think the pressure is increasing,” said Mr Bakkum, who views China’s slowdown as more structural than cyclical and fears the fallout from “the deleveraging process that we need to see in most [emerging market] countries”.

    “In most countries we see monetary conditions tightening because of capital outflows, which makes the whole deleveraging process more urgent,” Mr Bakkum said, citing problems such as a household credit bubble in Thailand, and excess fixed investment in Brazil and Turkey.

    “They don’t really have much of a choice [but to delever]. If your capital flows out, interest rates have to go higher and it becomes much more expensive to finance your debt, so it has to come down,” he added.

  5. #5
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    Presidente do BC diz que revisão do FMI foi 'significativa'

    De acordo com o World Economic Outlook do FMI, o Brasil terá retração de 3,5% este ano - a previsão anterior era de queda de 1% - e crescimento zero em 2017 ante perspectiva anterior de avanço de 2,3%.

    Célia Froufe - O Estado de S.Paulo
    19 Janeiro 2016

    O presidente do Banco Central, Alexandre Tombini, divulgou comentário nesta terça-feira, 19, sobre a revisão do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) das projeções para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro em 2016 e 2017. De acordo com Tombini, as mudanças foram "significativas". Ele também afirmou na nota que "todas as informações econômicas relevantes e disponíveis até a reunião do Copom são consideradas nas decisões do colegiado".

    De acordo com o World Economic Outlook do FMI, o Brasil terá retração de 3,5% este ano - a previsão anterior era de queda de 1% - e estabilidade no ano que vem ante perspectiva anterior de avanço de 2,3%. O Fundo atribui, de acordo com a nota do BC, a fatores não econômicos as razões para esta rápida e pronunciada deterioração das previsões.

    O Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) se reúne em 2016 pela primeira vez hoje e amanhã também, quando informa o novo nível da taxa básica de juros (Selic), atualmente em 14,25% ao ano. A expectativa maciça do mercado financeiro é de que haverá uma alta para 14,75% ao ano.,10000007445

  6. #6
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    Brasil só voltará a crescer em 2018, diz FMI

    A economia brasileira deverá sofrer uma queda de 3,5% no Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) neste ano, prevê o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI). De acordo com as projeções divulgadas nessa terça-feira pela instituição no relatório Panorama Econômico Mundial (WEO, da sigla em inglês), o Brasil deverá sofrer a maior queda entre os emergentes, ficando bem abaixo da média dos países da América Latina e Caribe, que é de recuo 0,3%, da Rússia, com baixa de 1%, e da China, que, mesmo em desaceleração, tem perspectiva de crescer 6,3%.

    Para 2017, a previsão do Fundo para o desempenho econômico do Brasil é de estagnação.

    O FMI citou a recessão no Brasil como uma das causas que está puxando as revisões globais das expectativas de crescimento para baixo. Globalmente, as projeções de crescimento tiveram uma revisão para baixo de 0,2 ponto tanto em 2016 quanto em 2017, para 3,4% e 3,6%, respectivamente.

    Essas revisões se devem, em grande medida, ao fato de a recuperação das economias emergentes ser mais fraca do que as estimativas feitas em outubro, na edição anterior do relatório. Mas, na composição geral dos países, o Brasil foi apontado como a principal nação que está puxando as projeções gerais para baixo. Segundo o Fundo, a recessão “causada pela incerteza política em meio às sequelas ininterruptas da investigação na Petrobras está demonstrando ser mais profunda e prolongada do que era esperado”.

    A instituição ressaltou ainda que a situação no Oriente Médio também contribuiu para a revisão para baixo das projeções por causa da queda dos preços do petróleo.

    Por fim, o FMI enfatizou que o crescimento dos Estados Unidos poderá manter o ritmo atual em vez de ganhar novo impulso.

    As perspectivas de crescimento de comércio mundial também foram revisadas para baixo em mais de 0,5% em 2016 e 2017 como consequência da situação da China, onde há incertezas quanto à possibilidade de avanços na economia e de mercados com dificuldades de crescimento.

    As projeções divulgadas para o Brasil pelo FMI, nessa terça-feira, representam um novo recuo em relação à última edição do relatório Panorama Econômico Mundial, em outubro passado, quando a instituição previu uma retração de 1,0% do PIB brasileiro em 2016. Anteriormente, em julho de 2015, o Fundo estimou que o país poderia crescer 0,7% neste ano.

    As quedas nas projeções do FMI para a economia do Brasil se tornaram uma constante na divulgação do Panorama Econômico Mundial nos últimos três anos. O relatório é divulgado em janeiro, abril, julho e outubro e, desde 2013, as perspectivas do país estão sendo revisadas para baixo.

  7. #7
    Data de Ingresso
    Feb 2016
    U.S. Economic Outlook 2016: GDP, Debt, Inflation, Interest Rates:

    For 2016 and beyond, all official U.S. economic forecasts call for stronger growth ahead. But, economic output is not the only variable on the rise. Inflation, debt levels, interest rates, and market valuations are also increasing. What does this mean for investors????????????

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