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  1. #1
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    Mercados azedaram

    Desta vez, a principal fonte de preocupação é a situação de grandes bancos ao redor do mundo

    Celso Ming - O Estado de S.Paulo
    09 Fevereiro 2016


    Nos países em que nesta terça-feira, 9, não foi feriado, as bolsas voltaram a mergulhar.

    Frankfurt perdeu 1,1%; Londres, 1,0%; Milão, 3,2%; e Paris, 1,7%.

    Desta vez, a principal fonte de preocupação é a situação de grandes bancos ao redor do mundo. Nesta terça-feira, um dos principais diretores do Deutsche Bank, John Cryan, se sentiu obrigado a desmentir enfaticamente os rumores que tomaram corpo nos últimos dias. Declarou que seu banco está absolutamente sólido como uma rocha.

    Por toda parte, avaliações, boatos e desmentidos sobre a saúde dos bancos ou de alguns deles em particular vêm se repetindo na imprensa especializada internacional.

    The New York Times do dia 4 publicou extensa matéria (Trillions in bad loans may sap world economy for a long time) na qual apontou encrencas bancárias medidas em “multitrilhões de dólares”. Só na China, há, conforme o depoimento de especialistas, cerca de US$ 5 trilhões em créditos com problemas, o que corresponde a cerca da metade de seu PIB. A disparada das dimensões do sistema financeiro da China já é, por si só, fonte de preocupação. Em apenas sete anos, saltou de US$ 9 trilhões para US$ 30 trilhões. Esse ritmo é, por si só, altamente suspeito; sugere a pressa com que tantas operações foram feitas. Agora que a economia chinesa está em franca desaceleração e enfrenta um princípio de fuga de capitais, é inevitável que um volume não desprezível de empréstimos bancários esteja sujeito a calote.

    Por toda parte, especialmente nos Estados Unidos e no Canadá, grande número de bancos está exposto aos trancos que agora atingem o mercado global do petróleo cujos preços caíram 70% em 19 meses e deixaram muitas companhias do setor no vermelho. O mais apontado parece ser o Wells Fargo Bank.

    Aumentam também as pressões sobre o sistema bancário da Itália, que enfrenta o azedamento da qualidade de cerca de 300 bilhões de euros. Apenas neste ano, os bancos italianos perderam quase US$ 40 bilhões em valor de mercado.

    O setor bancário é vulnerável a corridas sempre que as suspeitas começam a circular. Quem está bem, exagera suas condições; quem está mal esconde. Na China, onde a baixa transparência é a regra, uma avaliação é sempre problemática e a boataria acaba prevalecendo.

    Os novos problemas da rede bancária global são o resultado de três fatores. O mais importante deles é a política dos grandes bancos centrais que despejaram enormes volumes de moeda no mercado que, naturalmente, desembocaram no caixa dos bancos. Estes se sentiram na obrigação de reemprestar tudo o que podiam, nem sempre sob as melhores condições de risco.

    O outro fator foi a já citada derrubada dos preços do petróleo e das demais commodities que deixaram grande número de empresas em más condições.

    E, terceiro fator, todo o setor bancário enfrenta agora nova perspectiva de recessão global e, portanto, queda de renda e aumento da inadimplência.

    Por enquanto, as preocupações aumentam nos mercados, mas não dá para dizer que já estejamos à beira de novo ciclo de turbulências, como em 2008.



    http://economia.estadao.com.br/notic...am,10000015588
    Última edição por 5ms; 10-02-2016 às 07:06.

  2. #2
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    Toxic Loans Around the World Weigh on Global Growth

    Bad loans are on the rise at Brazil’s biggest banks, as the country grapples with the effects of an enormous credit binge.

    By PETER EAVISFEB. 3, 2016

    Beneath the surface of the global financial system lurks a multitrillion-dollar problem that could sap the strength of large economies for years to come.

    The problem is the giant, stagnant pool of loans that companies and people around the world are struggling to pay back. Bad debts have been a drag on economic activity ever since the financial crisis of 2008, but in recent months, the threat posed by an overhang of bad loans appears to be rising. China is the biggest source of worry. Some analysts estimate that China’s troubled credit could exceed $5 trillion, a staggering number that is equivalent to half the size of the country’s annual economic output.

    Official figures show that Chinese banks pulled back on their lending in December. If such trends persist, China’s economy, the second-largest in the world behind the United States’, may then slow even more than it has, further harming the many countries that have for years relied on China for their growth.

    But it’s not just China. Wherever governments and central banks unleashed aggressive stimulus policies in recent years, a toxic debt hangover has followed. In the United States, it took many months for mortgage defaults to fall after the most recent housing bust — and energy companies are struggling to pay off the cheap money that they borrowed to pile into the shale boom.

    In Europe, analysts say bad loans total more than $1 trillion. Many large European banks are still burdened with defaulted loans, complicating policy makers’ efforts to revive the Continent’s economy. Italy, for instance, announced a plan last week to clean out bad loans from its plodding banking industry.

    Elsewhere, bad loans are on the rise at Brazil’s biggest banks, as the country grapples with the effects of an enormous credit binge.

    “If you have a boom and then a bust, you create economic losses,” said Alberto Gallo, head of global macro credit research at the Royal Bank of Scotland in London. “You can hope the losses one day turn into profits, but if they don’t, they are a drag on the economy.”

    In good times, companies and people take on new loans, often at low interest rates, to buy goods and services. When economies slow, these debts become difficult to pay for many borrowers. And the bigger the boom, the more soured debt that is left behind for bankers and policy makers to deal with.

    In theory, it makes sense for banks to swiftly recognize the losses embedded in bad loans — and then make up for those losses by raising fresh capital. The cleaned-up banks are more likely to start lending again — and thus play their part in fueling the recovery.

    But in reality, this approach can be difficult to carry out. Recognizing losses on bad loans can mean pushing corporate borrowers into bankruptcy and households into foreclosure. Such disruption can send a chill through the economy, require unpopular taxpayer bailouts and have painful social consequences. And in some cases, the banks might find it extremely difficult to raise fresh capital in the markets.

    Even so, the drawback of delaying the cleanup is that the banks remain wounded and reluctant to lend, damping any recovery that takes place. Japan, economists say, waited far too long after its credit boom of the 1980s to force its banks to recognize huge losses — and the economy suffered for years after as a result.

    Now many banking experts are beginning to worry about China’s bad loans.

    Fears that the country’s economy is slowing have weighed heavily on global markets in recent months because a weak China can drag down growth globally.

    Many of these concerns focus on China’s banking industry. In recent years, banks and other financial companies in China issued a tidal wave of new loans and other credit products, many of which will not be paid back in full.

    China’s financial sector will have loans and other financial assets of $30 trillion at the end of this year, up from $9 trillion seven years ago, said Charlene Chu, an analyst in Hong Kong for Autonomous Research.

    “The world has never seen credit growth of this magnitude over a such short time,” she said in an email. “We believe it has directly or indirectly impacted nearly every asset price in the world, which is why the market is so jittery about the idea that credit problems in China could unravel.”

    Headline figures for bad loans in China most likely do not capture the size of the problem, analysts say. In her analysis, Ms. Chu estimates that at the end of 2016, as much as 22 percent of the Chinese financial system’s loans and assets will be “nonperforming,” a banking industry term used to describe when a borrower has fallen behind on payments or is stressed in ways that make full repayment unlikely. In dollar terms, that works out to $6.6 trillion of troubled loans and assets.

    “This estimate really isn’t that unreasonable,” Ms. Chu said in the email. “We’ve seen similar ratios in other countries. What’s different is the scale, which reflects the massive size of China’s credit boom.” She estimates that the bad loans could lead to $4.4 trillion of actual losses.

    Although there is not enough official data to come up with a precise figure for bad loans, other analysts have come up with estimates of around $5 trillion.

    Given the murkiness of the Chinese financial industry, other analysts arrive at estimates for a “baseline” figure for bad loans. Christopher Balding, an associate professor at the HSBC School of Business at Peking University, said that an analysis of corporations’ interest payments to Chinese banks suggested that 8 percent of loans to companies might be troubled. But Mr. Balding said it was possible that the bad loan number for China’s overall financial system could be higher.

    The looming question for the global economy, however, is how China might deal with a vast pool of bad debts.

    After a previous credit boom in the 1990s, the Chinese government provided financial support to help clean up the country’s banks. But the cost of similar interventions today could be dauntingly high given the size of the latest credit boom. And more immediately, rising bad debts could crimp lending to strong companies, undermining economic growth in the process.

    “My sense is that the Chinese policy makers seem like a deer in the headlights,” Mr. Balding said. “They really don’t know what to do.”

    In Europe, for instance, some countries have taken years to come to grips with their banks’ bad loans.

    In some cases, the delay arose from a reluctance, at least in part, to force people out of their homes. Even though Ireland’s biggest banks suffered huge losses after the financial crisis, they held back from forcing many borrowers who had defaulted out of their homes. In recent years, the Irish government has pursued a widespread plan that aims to reduce the debt load of financially stressed homeowners. Such forbearance appears not to have weakened the Irish economy, which has recovered at a faster rate than those of other European countries.

    Still, the perils of waiting too long are evident in Italy, which in January announced a proposal to help banks sell their bad loans. Some critics of the plan say it resembles a government bailout of the banks, while other skeptics say the banks might not use it because it appears to be too expensive.

    “The big problem in the Italian system is that they acted very late,” said Silvia Merler, an affiliate fellow at Bruegel, a European research firm that focuses on economic issues. “They could have done something smarter — and they could have done it earlier.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/04/bu...al-growth.html

  3. #3
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    "Eu lhe disse"

    Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists

    Nick Fletcher | The Guardian
    12 January 2016

    Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned.

    In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.

    Stock markets have already come under severe pressure in 2016, with the FTSE 100 down more than 5% in its worst start since 2000. In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average has made its poorest ever start to a year.

    Oil prices have also fallen sharply on fears of lower demand and a supply glut, especially with Iran due to start exporting once more when sanctions are lifted. Tensions between Iran and Saudia Arabia make it less likely that Opec can agree to cut production to halt the slide in prices. Brent crude is down another 1% at $31.18, its lowest level since April 2004.

    Investors have been spooked by fears of a severe slowdown in the Chinese economy and a fall in the value of the yuan, not helped by a crash in the country’s stock market despite attempts by the country’s authorities to curtail selling.

    Andrew Roberts, RBS’s credit chief, said: “China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the ‘Goldilocks love-in’ of the last two years.”

    Markets have been supported for some time by low interest rates, stimulus measures from central banks including quantitative easing, and hopes of economic recovery. But with the Federal Reserve raising rates and the Bank of England expected to follow suit, that prop is being removed.

    Roberts said European and US markets could fall by 10% to 20%, with the FTSE 100 particularly at risk due to the predominance of commodity companies in the UK index. “London is vulnerable to a negative shock. All these people who are long [buyers of] oil and mining companies thinking that the dividends are safe are going to discover that they’re not at all safe.

    “We suspect 2016 will be characterised by more focus on how the exiting occurs of positions in the three main asset classes that benefited from quantitative easing: 1) emerging markets, 2) credit, 3) equities … Risks are high.”

    RBS is not the only negative voice at the moment. Analysts at JP Morgan have advised clients to sell stocks on any bounce.

    Morgan Stanley has said oil could fall to $20 a barrel, while Standard Chartered has predicted an even bigger slide, to as low as $10. Standard said: “Given that no fundamental relationship is currently driving the oil market towards any equilibrium, prices are being moved almost entirely by financial flows caused by fluctuations in other asset prices, including the US dollar and equity markets.

    “We think prices could fall as low as $10 a barrel before most of the money managers in the market conceded that matters had gone too far.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/...rbs-economists

  4. #4
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    Ações asiáticas recuam diante de preocupações com bancos

    Índice do Japão tombou mais de 5% na terça e recuou outros 2,3% nesta quarta

    Reuters
    10/02/2016 09h45

    As ações asiáticas caíram nesta quarta-feira (10) devido às crescentes preocupações com a saúde dos bancos mundiais, particularmente na Europa, levando os investidores a procurar ativos seguros como o iene, que chegou à máxima de 15 meses ante o dólar.

    O índice Nikkei, do Japão, que tombou mais de 5% na terça-feira, recuou 2,31% nesta quarta-feira.

    O índice chegou a recuar 4% durante a sessão e tocou a mínima de 16 meses com a queda das ações bancárias e o fortalecimento do iene dando um golpe na confiança.

    A adoção de taxa de juros negativa pelo banco central japonês não tem dado nenhum suporte, e o índice já acumula queda de mais de 10% desde a decisão surpreendente do banco no dia 29 de janeiro.

    Às 7h44 (horário de Brasília), o índice MSCI que reúne ações da região Ásia-Pacífico com exceção do Japão caía 0,2 por cento, enquanto os mercados chineses permaneciam fechados nesta semana para os feriados do Ano Novo Lunar.

    Os mercados acionários foram afetados no começo da semana pelas preocupações com a saúde do setor bancário da zona do euro, já que a política monetária muito expansiva é considerada como algo que pode diminuir o lucro dos bancos e sua capacidade de pagar dívidas.

    Em TÓQUIO, o índice Nikkei recuou 2,31%, a 15.713 pontos.

    Em HONG KONG, o índice HANG SENG não teve operações

    Em XANGAI, o índice SSEC não teve negócios.

    O índice CSI300, que reúne as maiores companhias listadas em XANGAI e SHENZHEN, não abriu para operações.

    Em SEUL, o índice KOSPI não abriu para negócios.

    Em TAIWAN, o índice TAIEX permaneceu fechado.

    Em CINGAPURA, o índice STRAITS TIMES desvalorizou-se 1,6 %, a 2.582 pontos.

    Em SYDNEY o índice S&P/ASX 200 recuou 1,2%, a 4.775 pontos.
    http://g1.globo.com/economia/mercado...om-bancos.html

  5. #5
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    BM&FBovespa e Yellen catalisam atenção às 13h


    Angela Bittencourt
    10/02/2016

    A BM&FBovespa abre a sessão desta quarta-feira de Cinzas às 13h para negociação e registro de operações, após dois dias de interrupção durante o carnaval. Com feriado parcial, hoje a bolsa volta a movimentar ações e derivativos. E a atenção de todo o mercado estará voltada ao comportamento do Índice Bovespa, nas ações da Petrobras, da Vale e dos grandes bancos brasileiros. A perspectiva é de correção de preços desses ativos, após forte queda registrada na bolsa americana nos últimos dois dias.

    Hoje, coincidentemente, a retomada das operações financeiras no Brasil ocorrerá com o início da apresentação por Janet Yellen, presidente do Federal Reserve (BC dos EUA), do relatório semestral sobre as condições econômicas do país e a política monetária em sessão da Comissão de Serviços Financeiros da Câmara de Representantes, em Washington. Amanhã, Yellen reprisa o discurso no Senado.

    Após o aumento da taxa básica de juro em dezembro e a manutenção em janeiro, analistas e investidores internacionais aguardam a palavra de Yellen. E não foi desfeito o temor de que ela mantenha o sinal de aumento do juro, apesar de indicadores recentes desautorizem convicção na melhora inequívoca das condições econômicas.

    Nos últimos dois dias __ de carnaval no Brasil __ uma nova baixa nos preços do petróleo, que chegou ao patamar de US$ 28, renovou os temores de desaquecimento da economia global. As bolsas de valores penaram na Europa e nos Estados Unidos. E é um chute supor que os mercados teriam melhor comportamento se China, Hong Cong, Taiwan e Coreia do Sul não estivem com mercados suspensos pelo feriado do Ano Novo Lunar. As bolsas chinesas estão fora do ar desde a semana passada.
    http://www.valor.com.br/valor-invest...am-atencao-13h

  6. #6
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    Mercados tremem

    Míriam Leitão
    10/02/2016

    Enquanto o Brasil pulava o carnaval, o mundo se afundou no medo de uma crise bancária europeia que, por contágio, pode atingir outros países e ativos. O Deutsche Bank é só a ponta do iceberg. Ele perdeu 38% do seu valor desde o começo do ano e divulgou um balanço com € 7 bilhões de perda. Mas outros bancos, alemães, franceses, suíços e, claro, gregos despencaram na bolsa em dois dias de mercado fechado por aqui.

    Esse temor deve se refletir na Bovespa logo na abertura. A interligação dos mercados é total nestes tempos globalizados. Tanto é assim que a Petrobras em dois dias perdeu 10% na Bolsa de Nova York. O Japão, que na segunda-feira havia subido um pouco, contrariando a tendência geral, ontem despencou 5%. Como é típico desses momentos, há fatos e declarações que revertem o movimento para em seguida os ativos voltarem a se comportar como todos os outros. Algumas bolsas que ficaram fechadas pelo Ano Novo Lunar devem hoje refletir o movimento de ontem.

    Essa onda de medo em relação aos bancos é derivada direta da queda dos preços do petróleo. As instituições financeiras estão muito expostas a ativos ligados à commodity, sejam papéis, sejam empresas, e a queda dos preços foi mais intensa do que o previsto pela maioria dos analistas. E como sempre acontece nestes momentos, quem está mais frágil sente mais. Os bancos gregos tiveram quedas de 24% esta semana. Várias instituições divulgaram balanços com prejuízos. Até sexta devem sair outros demonstrativos.

    O dominó é assim: a China cresce menos e por isso os preços das commodities caem, entre eles, o petróleo e isso afeta os papéis lastreados em petróleo e as empresas de energia. A sequência de eventos fragiliza os bancos que têm esses ativos em carteira. Há analistas achando que tudo isso é exagero, mas a economia mundial está com os nervos à flor da pele. O Brasil fechado para balanço para curtir o carnaval e cercado por riscos, como o Aedes aegypti e suas pragas, não viu o quanto a tensão aumentou nas últimas 48 horas.

    O mercado financeiro nos últimos anos sempre puniu os países mais atingidos por crises e dúvidas elevando o CDS, o Credit Default Swap, ou seja, o custo do seguro contra o país em questão. Isso nem sempre tem a ver com a realidade. Quem tem o título de país cujo CDS sobe tem, na prática, que pagar mais caro para se proteger do risco desse país. O CDS do Brasil nos últimos tempos ficou acima do da Argentina. Em outras palavras, quem quiser comprar seguro para se proteger do risco Brasil paga mais caro do que para se proteger do risco argentino. O que é uma insensatez já que o Brasil tem US$ 370 bilhões de reserva e déficit externo em declínio, e a Argentina não tem reservas e tenta negociar uma dívida à qual deu calote. Ontem o que disparava era o custo de se proteger do risco dos bancos, principalmente os europeus. O CDS dessas instituições subiu fortemente.

    Com a segunda queda consecutiva no valor das ações do Deutsche Bank, o ministro alemão Wolfgang Schäuble teve que vir a público, na terça-feira, para dizer que não estava preocupado com o banco. Curioso é que Schäuble sempre foi o carrasco dos países encrencados da Europa e ontem era ele que tinha que tentar infundir confiança no maior banco de seu país. As ações caíram 4% depois da queda de 9,5% da segundafeira. Outros bancos europeus tiveram desvalorizações maiores na terça-feira. O Credit Suisse caiu 8%. No caso do Deutsche, o principal executivo da instituição, John Cryan, declarou ontem pelo segundo dia consecutivo que o banco está sólido.

    Pelo sim, pelo não, no final do dia o Deutsche anunciou que fará um plano emergencial de recompra de bonds que lançou e que têm perdido valor no mercado. O programa de recompra pode chegar a € 50 bilhões, mas não vai atingir os papéis que mais caíram nos últimos dias, os “Contingent Convertible bonds”, também conhecidos como “CoCo bonds”.

    Esse clima de crise está reduzindo ainda mais os juros das economias desenvolvidas e ontem o Japão passou a pagar taxas negativas em seus papéis de 10 anos. O movimento é para estimular a atividade. Neste ambiente global negativo, o Brasil abrirá os bancos e a bolsa nesta quarta-feira de cinzas.

    http://blogs.oglobo.globo.com/miriam...os-tremem.html

  7. #7
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    Deutsche Bank shares soar 11% on bond buyback speculation

    Deutsche Bank shares have bounced back, after hitting a 30-year low on Tuesday, on reports that it will instigate an emergency bond buyback plan.


    2 hours ago

    Shares in the bank soared more than 11% to €14.72 (£11.43) in Frankfurt on the media reports, easing concerns about the strength of Deutsche's balance sheet.

    The bank itself has made no comment.

    The recovery in Deutsche Bank's share price came after two days of dramatic falls.

    Shares slumped 13% over the course of Monday and Tuesday, despite assurances from the bank that its balance sheet was "rock solid".

    The bank's shares in Frankfurt closed 5% lower on Tuesday.

    Overall, shares in Deutsche are still down more than 40% since the start of the year.

    A report in the Financial Times stated the bank was expected to focus its emergency buyback plan on some €50bn of senior bonds - debt that is repaid first if a company goes out of business.

    But the bank's move is unlikely to involve so-called contingent convertible bonds.

    Convertible bonds force investors to convert bonds into a predetermined number of shares at a given price, known as the strike price.

    Contingent convertible bonds, or CoCo bonds for short, usually have a strike price that, as the name implies, is "contingent" on shares in a company remaining at that price for a certain period of time. If that trigger is hit, the bonds convert into shares.

    'Rock solid'

    On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank's co-chief executive, John Cryan, sent a message to all staff in which he assured them the bank was in a strong financial position, despite global growth fears, low oil and other commodity prices, and the fact that the bank would be booking write-downs in its fourth quarter.

    He said that while the stock markets had "expressed some concern about the adequacy of our legal provisions", he did not "share that concern".

    Mr Cryan added: "Volatility in the fourth quarter impacted the earnings of most major banks, especially those in Europe, and clients may ask you about how the market-wide volatility is impacting Deutsche Bank."

    He said staff at the bank could tell customers concerned about investing with the bank that "Deutsche Bank remains absolutely rock-solid, given our strong capital and risk position".

    Takeover speculation

    The email to Deutsche Bank staff, made publicly available via the bank's official Twitter account, is an unusual step.

    The bank has also been the subject of takeover speculation in German media, given the low value of its share price. Deutsche Bank has had negative press for years now amid a series of scandals and litigation. It chalked up a record loss of €6.8bn last year.

    Meanwhile, Credit Suisse chief executive Tidjane Thiam has told the Financial Times that he believes the Swiss bank's capital position is healthy and that they have "no liquidity issues."

    He added that the bank's current common equity tier 1 capital ratio of 11.4% was the strongest Credit Suisse has ever had.

    Tier 1 capital is the measure of a bank's financial strength based on the sum of its equity capital and disclosed reserves.

    Last week Credit Suisse reported its first full-year loss since 2008, sending its shares tumbling.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35538969

  8. #8
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    Yellen’s testimony: analysts react

    The Fed governor’s testimony set off a flurry of analyst notes about what her comments mean for future US monetary policy. Here’s what they’re saying:

    Avery Shenfield, CIBC:
    Her greater attention to downside vs upside risks to growth hints that she is on board with market expectations for a no-change decision in March.

    Josh Shapiro, MR:
    The prepared text was largely boilerplate, leaving options wide open in terms of future moves in the Fed funds target. While the FOMC would probably welcome an(y) opportunities to continue to move the target very gradually higher, they are not going to do so unless the economic and financial environment permits them to. At the moment, that is not the case, and therefore the wait-and-see mode continues.

    Augustin Eden, Accendo Markets:
    A not unusually muted reaction to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony this afternoon, given that she’s come out and said ‘financial conditions in the US have recently become less supportive of growth.’ It doesn’t take a 1st class physicist to recognize that this is essentially another way of saying ‘we raised interest rates before we should have’.

    Peter Boockvar, The Lindsey Group:
    She acknowledged all the risks to the downside and positives on the upside to the outlook without leaning in any one direction, thus leaving us with a ‘let’s play it by ear’, middle of the road message which I believe is prudent in light of the amount of information still to be seen before they walk into the March meeting.

    http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/02/10/...analysts-react

  9. #9
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    Yellen: tighter financial conditions may weigh on US growth

    The turbulence in global financial markets could deal a setback to US growth and corporate hiring if it persists, the Federal Reserve chair told Congress on Wednesday, in words that will further reduce expectations of near-term increases in interest rates.

    Janet Yellen flagged up risks to the US stemming from China and said financial conditions had become “less supportive” of US growth, citing the recent slide in equity prices, higher credit costs for riskier borrowers and the rise in the dollar, which has been battering exporters, reports Sam Fleming in Washington, DC.

    “These developments, if they prove persistent, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity and the labour market, although declines in longer-term interest rates and oil prices provide some offset,” she said in a statement to the US House Financial Services Committee.

    Ms Yellen stuck however with her existing policy of signaling “gradual” increases in interest rates, arguing that continued hiring and wage gains should support the US economy while stimulative monetary policies overseas should buoy world growth.

    Her cautious assessment marked a contrast to the optimistic tone of her last public statement in December, when she hailed the Fed’s decision to lift short-term rates by a quarter-point as a sign of the progress that had been made by the US economy since the Great Recession.

    Since then financial markets have had a torrid opening to 2016, driven by tumbling commodity prices, fears over Chinese growth and its volatile exchange rate policy, and concerns about the ability of central banks to continue propping up growth. The developments have led to increased discussion among economists about the risks of a recession in the US, and have triggered criticism of the Fed’s December decision to tighten policy.

    http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/02/10/...-on-us-growth/

  10. #10
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