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Tópico: Eur / usd 1,07

  1. #1
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    Eur / usd 1,07


  2. #2
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    Political risk drives prospects for the euro

    Investors turn their attention to upcoming Italian referendum and national elections

    Roger Blitz

    Politics looks set to become the key driver of the euro, just as it is shaping sterling and the dollar, as investors turn their attention to several forthcoming European elections that herald another wave of Brexit and Trump-style anti-establishment sentiment.

    On Monday the euro fell 1.3 per cent against the dollar, and was down 0.4 per cent against the pound.

    Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman said despite eurozone GDP and inflation data this week, “politics instead will command attention”.

    The first primary for candidates vying to become the French centre-right candidate for the spring presidential election is this weekend, while Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi is fighting an uphill battle to win December’s constitutional referendum.

    Ugo Lancioni, FX and global fixed income portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said a win for anti-establishment sentiment would be seen by the market as “anti-euro”.

    He added: “Over the medium and long term, data matters more than anything, but in the case of Europe, politics has the potential to shift attention completely from data, and right now the market is not looking at [eurozone] data.”

    The wider ramification of the euro weakening against both sterling and the dollar is that it could be a “gift” for the European Central Bank, reducing the need for further dovish monetary policy, Mr Lancioni said.

    The pound is up 4.5 per cent against the euro so far this month, boosted in part by the High Court decision that MPs are entitled to a vote on triggering the UK’s departure from the EU.

    UK data this week on jobs and retail sales should be positive, predicted BNP Paribas, while inflation would continue to edge higher.

    Ahead of next week’s Autumn Statement, RBS said modest UK fiscal loosening would boost the pound.

    Predicting a fall in the euro to 84p in the fourth quarter, RBS analysts said inflation data would provide clues to the Bank of England’s tolerance for higher inflation “and whether the pound’s recent negative policy spiral has been broken”.

    Sterling positions have influenced the currency’s recent moves, according to Jane Foley, G10 foreign exchange strategist at Rabobank. “We saw a switch last week from shorter covering, but it’s difficult to know whether it’s got further to go,” she said.

    Ms Foley also questioned the view that Donald Trump’s anti-establishment victory was somehow favourable to the position of the UK since the Leave vote and negative for the EU.

    “Both [French president] François Hollande and [German chancellor] Angela Merkel both suggested that the principles of the EU have got to come first. The implication is they have no option but to pursue a hard Brexit,” she said.

    https://www.ft.com/content/7a57440c-...3-bb8207902122

  3. #3
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    Euro Ignores Good Economic Data from Greece


    Chart 1: EUR/USD 5-minute Chart (November 14 Intraday)

    Oliver Morrison

    Talking Points

    - Greek GDP and Euro-Zone industrial production beat estimates…

    - …but data won’t alter expectations on ECB action.

    - EUR/USD hits new lows as Dollar strength endures broadly.

    Positive data is doing nothing to lift the beleaguered Euro as we cross into the ides of November. Greek growth has risen for a second quarter in a row – that’s the first time that’s happened since 2006 – but the single currency continues to be overpowered by US Dollar strength in the wake President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, the bond market rout, and rising fears of Euro-Zone populism.

    Greece's economy unexpectedly grew for a second quarter in a row and at a faster pace in the three months to September, according to a preliminary estimate from the Hellenic Statistics Authority. GDP was up a seasonally adjusted +0.5% from Q2’16, when it grew +0.3%, revised from +0.2% (q/q). On a yearly basis, GDP rose +1.5% in Q3’16, after a -0.6% drop in Q2’16. That’s the first rise in annual expansion in three quarters and the strongest since the first quarter of 2008, when the economy grew by +2.4%.

    Euro-Zone industrial production also beat consensus and showed signs of an improving outlook, but it remains “sluggish and headwinds abound”, according to Eurostat. Industrial production fell in the 19 countries that share the Euro by -0.8% from August, when it rose +1.8% (y/y). Economists had been expecting a -1% fall (y/y).

    The single currency remains under pressure as markets recalibrate their focus to the feedback loop of geopolitical developments to central bank policies. EUR/USD has hit new lows on Monday. At the time this report was writtten, the pair was trading near $1.0720, its lowest since the beginning of January.

    The Euro is also continuing to drop against the Pound, buoyed by Trump’s talk of putting the UK at the ‘front of the queue’ in any trade deal negotiations. Such talk is reviving the spirit of a ‘soft Brexit’ and in turn, fanning the flames of hopeful populists across Europe. EUR/GBP was last spotted around £0.8607, less than one-tenth of a percent off on the day.

    The odds on a US rate hike are holding above 90%, after rising from a low of 51% in the immediate aftermath of the Trump victory. The market’s perception of the course of action from the European Central Bank remains the same: namely, an adjustment to the QE program at the December meeting but no change to interest rates. More Euro-Zone data tomorrow – a German preliminary GDP estimate and ZEW survey Germany – are unlikely to alter that narrative.

    https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market...here-Else.html

  4. #4
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    Dollar hits nine-month high against euro as pound continues to climb

    Dan Cancian

    The pound struggled for direction on Monday (14 November), while the dollar rallied with investors buoyed by increasing expectations the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as next month.

    Having soared to a five-week high against the dollar on Friday, sterling retreated 0.57% against the US currency to trade at $1.2519 by mid-afternoon in the first session of the week. However, the pound extended gains against the euro, climbing 0.25% to €1.1633, after hitting a seven-week high of €1.1669 against the common currency late last week.

    Elsewhere, the dollar rallied, hitting €1.077 against the euro, its highest level in nine months, as the post US-elections jitters continue to subside.

    The greenback was also firmly on the front foot against the yen, gaining 1.15% to ¥107.88 and was broadly stable against its Canadian and Australian counterparts, exchanging hands at CAD$1.3541 and AUD$1.3524 respectively.

    "The message we've had so far is that [Donald] Trump's policies will stimulate growth and inflation which has driven Treasury yields to their highest level since the start of the year," said Oanda's senior market analyst Craig Erlam.

    "The dollar has responded in kind, rallying strongly, particularly against the safe haven yen which has dramatically lost its appeal having been a favourite in the immediate aftermath of the election."

    After the initial shock triggered by Trump's surprise victory, the dollar has been boosted by rising expectations the Fed would hike interest rates next month as originally expected before the US elections.

    However, currency markets could be very volatile this week as investors will focus on three key central bank speakers over the coming days. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney kicks off the proceedings with his testimony to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday, while Fed Chair Janet Yellen's will speak to the Joint Economic Committee on Thursday and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the European Banking Congress on Friday.

    In the aftermath of the US elections, Yellen's words are likely to be closely monitored by investors, who are looking to shed light on the US central bank's strategy.

    "Trump's shock victory swiftly sparked speculations of the European Central Bank extending its quantitative easing program at December's meeting, consequently leaving the euro vulnerable to losses," said FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga.

    "The mixture of euro weakness and dollar strength has made this pair attractive to sellers with further declines expected as expectations heighten over the Fed raising US rates before year end."

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/fx-focus-do...-climb-1591446
    Última edição por 5ms; 14-11-2016 às 20:11.

  5. #5
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    Apostas na paridade euro-dólar aumentam com vitória de Trump





    O mercado aponta agora para uma probabilidade de 45% de o euro cair para 1 dólar até ao fim do próximo ano, cerca do dobro da probabilidade atribuída antes da vitória de Donald Trump.

    Rita Faria
    15 de Novembro



    A vitória de Donald Trump nas eleições presidenciais norte-americanas está aumentar as apostas na paridade euro-dólar - algo que não acontece desde 2002 – devido à divergência expectável entre as políticas económicas da Zona Euro e dos Estados Unidos.

    Segundo os dados compilados pela Bloomberg, o mercado aponta agora para uma probabilidade de 45% de o euro cair para 1 dólar até ao fim do próximo ano, cerca do dobro da probabilidade atribuída há uma semana.

    As promessas do presidente eleito de aumentar a despesa e reduzir os impostos estão a alimentar a especulação de que o crescimento económico e a inflação na maior economia do mundo vão acelerar, levando a Reserva Federal dos Estados Unidos a aumentar as taxas de juro a um ritmo mais rápido – as apostas na subida dos juros em Dezembro cresceram de 80%, a 7 de Novembro, para 92%, actualmente.

    Essa especulação levou a moeda única a completar esta segunda-feira a sexta sessão consecutiva de perdas face à divisa norte-americana. O euro atingiu mesmo o valor mais baixo desde Dezembro de 2015, nos 1,0709 dólares.

    Para o Deutsche Bank, o quarto maior "trader" mundial de divisas, os resultados das eleições são suficientes para pressionar a moeda única e empurrá-la para baixo de 1 dólar em 2017. Isto depois de as apostas na paridade do euro-dólar terem caído este ano, com a Fed a atrasar a subida dos juros nos Estados Unidos.

    "A divergência está de volta", afirma George Saravelos, estrategista do Deutsche Bank em Londres, citado pela Bloomberg. "A vitória de Trump mudou as coisas".

    Saravelos prevê que o euro cairá para 1,05 dólares no final deste ano e para 0,95 dólares até ao final de 2017, o nível mais baixo desde Junho de 2002.

    "Antecipamos a paridade no primeiro trimestre de 2017", afirma Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, director do departamento de gestão de risco da Ebury, em Nova Iorque, citado pela Bloomberg.

    Numa nota de análise divulgada esta terça-feira, 15 de Novembro, também o Haitong antecipa que a subida do dólar face às principais congéneres deverá continuar, e que o par deverá "atingir a paridade" antes de o euro voltar a subir.

    Depois de seis sessões consecutivas de quedas face à divisa dos Estados Unidos, o euro está hoje a recuperar com uma subida de 0,63% para 1,0805 dólares.


    http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/merca...toria-de-trump
    Última edição por 5ms; 16-11-2016 às 12:08.

  6. #6
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    Alegadamente Oles está subindo os preços dos servidores devido ao aumento de custos de RAM mas a desvalorização atual e esperada do Euro, e fortalecimento do dólar, é um problema bem maior para a OvH e afeta também a Online.net, Hetzner, e outros provedores europeus.

  7. #7
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  8. #8
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  9. #9
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    Euro below $1.06 as record losing streak continues



    Peter Wells
    Nov. 18, 2016

    The US dollar might have little bit more work to do until it chalks up a record winning streak, but the damage it has done to the euro in the meantime has meant the single currency is suffering its longest losing run since becoming an accounting currency in 1999 and has slipped below $1.06 for the first time in nearly a year.

    The euro was down 0.3 per cent at $1.0592 in late Asian trade, marking the first time the currency has traded below $1.06 for the first time since December 3, 2015.

    That puts the euro on track for a 10th consecutive session of declines, making for the unit’s longest losing streak since it was adopted as an accounting currency at the start of 1999, according to Financial Times analysis of daily Bloomberg data.

    This has also shaped up as its most aggressive decline, of 4.9 per cent, compared to other losing streaks of similar length. That is in line with the rather aggressive surge the US dollar has enjoyed over the past fortnight.

    As the most traded currency pair in the world, it may not come as much of a surprise that a bout of strength for the US dollar translates to a bout of weakness for the euro. But unlike the euro, the dollar hasn’t yet chalked up a record winning streak.

    The dollar index, which is a measure of the US currency against a basket of peers and not a straight cross rate, is on track for a 10th straight day of gains. It is sitting 0.3 per cent firmer at 101.8 in late Asian trade.

    Even at nine sessions by the New York close on Thursday, the dollar’s winning streak was among its longest of the past 49 years. The record for the dollar index was 14 sessions from April to May in 2012.

    Also under pressure from the strong dollar, the People’s Bank of China fixed the trading band for the renminbi weaker on Friday for a record 11th session in a row.

    https://www.ft.com/content/5ae74a41-...4-85270ff15b5a


    Dollar at fresh 13-year highs, eyeing longest winning streak since 2012

    Jamie Chisholm
    Nov 18, 2016

    The dollar is climbing to fresh 13-year highs as US government bond yields hit multi-month peaks on expectations president-elect Donald Trump’s policies will boost US growth and deliver tighter monetary policy.

    Stock markets are managing to shrug off the prospect of higher borrowing costs. After a mixed Asia-Pacific session, which included Japanese equities entering a bull market, the pan-European Stoxx 600 is up 0.3 per cent, writes Jamie Chisholm.

    US index futures suggest the S&P 500 will dip just 2 points to 2,185, leaving the Wall Street barometer only five points shy of the record closing high touched in August.

    US equities, which usually set the global stock market mood, have rallied sharply since Mr Trump won the White House, with investors welcoming the end of election uncertainty and sectors such as construction and banks hoping the new president will deliver a surge in infrastructure spending and a lighter regulatory touch, respectively.

    The economic leg-up Mr Trump’s supporters believe his policies will deliver also has put a spark under the US currency and caused investors to flee government bonds on expectations the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates faster than expected to contain inflation.

    Addressing the US Congress on Wednesday, Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve chair, said that an increase in short-term interest rates could “become appropriate relatively soon”.

    Solid US data — including a four decade low for weekly jobless claims and US housing start hitting a mine-year high — also supported the case for tighter monetary policy, with markets pricing in a 96 per cent chance of rate rise in December.

    The dollar index, a measure of the US currency against a basket of global peers, is up 0.3 per cent at 101.23 on Friday, its highest since March 2003, and eyeing a 10th straight day of gains, which would be the longest winning streak since 2012.

    Among developed economy currencies it is the euro and yen that have been notably impacted by the buck’s bounce. The single currency is down 0.3 per cent to an 11-month low of $1.0592, and suffering its longest losing streak. The Japanese yen is 0.7 per cent softer at ¥110.86, its weakest since May, having lost more than 5 per cent since Mr Trump’s election.

    China’s renminbi was 0.2 per cent softer against the dollar after the country’s central bank set the band around which the currency can trade weaker for a record 11th session in a row. The Shanghai Composite equity index dipped 0.5 per cent but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, which tends to be guided more by Wall Street, added 0.4 per cent.

    The Mexican peso is down 0.9 per cent to 20.6140 per dollar after the country’s central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.25 per cent but warned that the election of Mr Trump had caused economic uncertainty.

    Some traders are warning that the buck’s bounce looks very stretched. The dollar/yen’s 14-day relative strength index, a closely watched momentum measure, is 80.35, well past the dollar “overbought” territory threshold of 70. Similarly, the euro/dollar RSI is 22.05, where any point below 30 suggests the euro is “oversold”.

    The weaker yen was good news for exporter-sensitive Japanese stocks, however, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 0.6 per cent to 17,967, meaning the benchmark has risen 20 per cent from a recent low, a move that some analysts consider a technical bull market.

    Tokyo’s equity gains came as benchmark Japanese government bond yields rose 3 basis points to 0.04 per cent, their highest since February as they took part in a trend powered out of the US. Ten-year Treasury yields, are up 5bp to 2.33 per cent, their highest in 11 months as investors price in expected “Trumpflation”.

    Gold tends not to like a firmer dollar and rising interest rates, and so the bullion is down $10 to $1,205 an ounce. In energy, the price of Brent crude is down 0.8 per cent to $46.11 a barrel.


    https://www.ft.com/content/fd60e7bb-...6-2e86c1426e6e

  10. #10
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    Euro breaks record losing streak; climbs to $1.06



    55 minutes ago by: Mehreen Khan

    Finally, some respite for the euro.

    Having suffered its worst run of trading since becoming the eurozone’s official accounting currency in 1999, the euro is climbing today on the back of some welcome political news from its two most important member states.

    The euro is up 0.4 per cent at publication time to $1.0632 – snapping a 10-day streak of losses against the greenback.



    Monday’s gains come after Angela Merkel announced she would be running for her fourth-term as German chancellor, while France’s centre-right Republican party inched closer to picking its presidential candidate – knocking out former leader Nicolas Sarkozy.

    Strength in the US dollar has helped push down the value of the euro over the last two weeks as investors position themselves for the Federal Reserve’s second interest rate rise in 12 months in December.

    The dollar index is, however, slipping today, down 0.3 per cent, with concerns about the eurozone’s stability also allaying somewhat after this weekend’s developments in Paris and Berlin.

    “The euro’s under-performance is partly due to the disruptive prospect of the French elections, the Italian referendum, and other upcoming political events in the eurozone – particularly in light of the recent streak of surprises in events such as the Greek referendum, the UK EU vote and the US presidential election”, said Themos Fiotakis at UBS.

    The Swiss bank said the euro looks “cheap” at current levels, while the candidates for France’s Republicans – former PM’s Alain Juppé and Francois Fillon – who boast “high approval rates against Ms [Marine] Le Pen would reduce near-term uncertainty and boost the euro”, said Mr Fiotakis.

    Kit Juckes at Société Générale said this morning’s euro boost can be attributed to investors covering their short positions.

    “How far that can go is doubtful,” said Mr Juckes, adding “uncertainty will weigh on the euro for months to come”.

    Despite the dollar softening at the start of the week, sterling is not joining in the rally and is down 0.25 against the greenback this morning to $1.234.

    https://www.ft.com/content/10751b6b-...5-8f5145b8f110

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