Resultados 1 a 7 de 7

Tópico: [EN] BGP in 2016

  1. #1
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    17,200

    [EN] BGP in 2016

    Geoff Huston
    27 Jan 2017

    It has become either a tradition or a habit for me that, each January, I report on the experience with the inter-domain routing system over the past year; looking in some detail at metrics from the routing system that can show the essential shape and behaviour of the underlying interconnection fabric of the Internet.

    https://blog.apnic.net/2017/01/27/bgp-in-2016/

  2. #2
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    17,200
    The summary of the IPv4 BGP network over the 2014-2016 period is shown in Table 1.


    Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 2014 growth 2015 growth 2016 growth
    Prefix Count 488,000 530,000 587,000 646,000 9% 11% 10%
    Root Prefix 237,000 257,000 281,000 304,000 8% 9% 8%
    More Specs 251,000 287,000 306,000 342,000 14% 7% 12%
    Address Span (/8s) 158.6 162.1 167.2 169.0 2% 3% 1%
    AS Count 46,000 49,000 52,700 56,100 7% 8% 6%
    Transit AS 6,400 7,000 7,600 7,800 9% 9% 3%
    Stub AS 39,000 42,000 45,100 48,300 8% 7% 7%

    Table 1 – IPv4 BGP Table Growth Profile

  3. #3
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    17,200
    The summary of the IPv6 BGP network over the 2014-2016 period is shown in Table 2.


    Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 2014 growth 2015 growth 2016 growth
    Prefix Count 16,700 21,000 27,200 34,800 26% 30% 28%
    Root Prefix 11,400 14,600 17,800 22,900 28% 22% 29%
    More Specs 5,300 6,400 9,400 11,900 21% 47% 27%
    Address Span (/8s) 56,000 58,200 71,000 76,600 4% 22% 8%
    AS Count 7,900 9,100 10,700 12,700 15% 18% 19%
    Transit AS 1,600 1,700 2,000 2,400 6% 18% 20%
    Stub AS 6,300 7,400 8,700 10,300 17% 18% 18%

    Table 2 – IPv6 BGP Table Growth Profile

  4. #4
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    17,200

    The Predictions

    The rate of growth of the routing table appears to be steady between 130 and 160 additional entries per day. If the first order differential matches a flat line, then the data set matches a linear increase model.

    The consequent prediction of the IPv4 BGP table size using this constant growth model of 148 additional routing entries per day is shown in Table 3.

    IPv4 Table IPv4 Prediction
    Jan 2013 441,172
    Jan 2014 488,011
    Jan 2015 529,806
    Jan 2016 586,879
    Jan 2017 645,974
    Jan 2018 697,000
    Jan 2019 751,000
    Jan 2020 806,000
    Jan 2021 861,000
    Jan 2022 915,000

    Table 3 – IPv4 BGP Table Size Predictions

    With the caveat that this prediction assumes tomorrow will be a lot like today and that the influences that shape tomorrow have already shaped today, then it’s reasonable to predict that the IPv4 routing table five years from now, at the start of 2022, will contain an additional 270,000 entries, making a total for IPv4 of some 915,000 entries in the BGP routing table at that time.

    It’s difficult to portray this prediction as reasonable under the current circumstances. Given the last ‘normal’ year of supply of available IPv4 addresses to fuel continued growth in the IPv4 Internet was 2010, why has the growth of the IPv4 routing table occurred with such regularity?

  5. #5
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    17,200

    IPv6

    The number of additional routing entries has grown from 10 new entries per day at the start of 2014 to a peak of over 30 in early 2016, although this has declined to around 20 per day by the end of 2016. Obviously, this is far lower than the equivalent figure in the IPv4 domain, which is growing by some 150 new entries per day, but it does show a consistent level of increasing growth.

    This implies that a linear growth model is inappropriate for modelling growth in IPv6. A better fit to the data is a compound growth model, with a doubling factor of some 22 months. It is possible to fit a linear model to the first order differential of the data, which can be used to derive an O(2) polynomial fit to the original data. The fit of a linear, O(2) polynomial and an exponential model against the data is also shown in Figure 31.

    The projections for the IPv6 table size are shown in Table 5.

    IPv6 Table IPv6 Prediction (linear) IPv6 Prediction (exponential)
    Jan 2013 11,600
    Jan 2014 16,158
    Jan 2015 20,976
    Jan 2016 27,241
    Jan 2017 37,469
    Jan 2018 43,244 49,619
    Jan 2019 50,290 65,376
    Jan 2020 57,335 86,136
    Jan 2021 64,399 113,594
    Jan 2022 71,445 149,639

    Table 5 – IPv6 BGP Table Size Predictions

    The linear and exponential projections in Table 5 provide a reasonable estimate of the low and high bounds of the growth of the IPv6 BGP routing table in the coming years. At this point, these figures are not a cause for any significant concern.

    It appears from these projections that for the next five years, the significantly larger size of the IPv4 network will continue to drive the overall costs of BGP routing, and the IPv6 BGP network will operate, in effect, in the margins of oversupply in meeting the demands of IPv4. It will be some time before there is a significant change in the relativities of the two protocols from a routing perspective.

  6. #6
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    17,200

    Conclusions

    These predictions for the routing system are highly uncertain. The correlation between network deployments and routing advertisements has been disrupted by the hiatus in supply of IPv4 addresses, causing more recent deployments to make extensive use of various forms of address sharing technologies. In addition, there is still a set of confused signals relating to IPv6 adoption.

    While a small number of providers have made significant progress in public IPv6 deployments for their respective customer base, the overall majority of the Internet is still exclusively using IPv4. This is despite the fact that among the small set of networks that have deployed IPv6 are some of the largest ISPs in the Internet!

    The predictions as to the future profile of the routing environment for IPv4 and IPv6 that use extrapolation from historical data can only go so far in providing a coherent picture for the near-term future.

    Despite this uncertainty, nothing in this routing data indicates any serious cause for alarm in the current trends of growth in the routing system. There is no evidence of the imminent collapse of BGP.

    None of the metrics indicate that we are seeing such an explosive level of growth in the routing system that it will fundamentally alter the viability of carrying a full BGP routing table anytime soon. In terms of the projections of table size in the IPv4 and IPv6 networks, the BGP sky is firmly well above us, and it’s not about to fall on our heads just yet!

  7. #7
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    1,151
    É uma questão de long-tail. Os maiores conteúdos já tem v6, então já tem gente com uso residencial com 60% do tráfego em IPv6... agora, a maioria dos sistemas autônomos menores ainda é só IPv4.

Permissões de Postagem

  • Você não pode iniciar novos tópicos
  • Você não pode enviar respostas
  • Você não pode enviar anexos
  • Você não pode editar suas mensagens
  •