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Tópico: Euro à US$ 1,20

  1. #1
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    Exclamation Euro à US$ 1,20


  2. #2
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    US Dollar Index (DXY) - Investing.com


  3. #3
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    Euro logs best run in five years and traders predict there's more to come

    The euro is on course for its best year since 2003 when it ended the year up more than 12 percent

    Spriha Srivastava
    1 Aug 2017

    The euro is trading at levels not seen since January 2015 and has posted its best run in five years as dollar weakens and the euro zone economy starts to gradually improve.

    On Tuesday, the euro hit a two-and-a-half year high against the dollar, trading just above $1.18 as investors look to move away from the risks surrounding the euro zone and focus on stronger fundamentals driving growth in the region.

    "The euro is benefiting from a substantial compression in spreads, allied to removal of European political risks, the latter benefiting from the passage of the French election. The German election has moved to be seen almost as a non-event," Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, told CNBC via email.

    Stretch further explained that improved euro fundamentals, such as annual growth reaching levels not seen in six years, has allowed the European Central Bank to think about tightening its ultra-loose monetary policy. "The prospect of an easing in bond-buying will start to arrest the aggressive expansion in the ECB's balance sheet."

    The euro is on course for its best year since 2003 when it ended the year up more than 12 percent. The currency has risen nearly 13 percent since the start of 2017 and has also posted its fifth monthly rise in a row, logging its best run in five years.

    Since the start of the year, with the exception of February, the euro has ended the month on a positive note.

    Here are the monthly runs for the euro since the start of the year:

    • January +3.3%
    • February -1.8%
    • March +1%
    • April +2.1%
    • May +3.3%
    • June +1.9%
    • July +3.5%



    Dollar weakness or euro strength?

    While analysts have attributed the strength in the euro to stronger fundamentals and improvement in the economy as well as the ECB readjusting its inflation target, some believe it is also down to the dollar weakness.

    "While euro fundamentals and rate spreads are encouraging of course, the correction in euro/dollar is also a function of the collapse in dollar sentiment. The paring of U.S. rate expectations and ongoing U.S. political uncertainty add to the euro momentum," CIBC's Stretch added.

    The U.S. dollar is holding close to a 14-month low as investors add to bets that political turmoil in Washington may hit prospects of another Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Uncertainty around President Donald Trump's policies and its impact on the larger economy continue to weigh on the greenback.

    "The euro move above $1.18 has been more of a story about dollar weakness than euro strength," Samir Sheldenkar, partner at Harmonic Capital, told CNBC via email.

    "Political concerns have clearly had an impact on the dollar as it becomes harder to see supportive policy being enacted from a White House in disarray. This has been compounded by economic data suggesting U.S. strength is perhaps not as robust as many thought earlier in the year."


    Could the euro head higher?

    Sheldenkar predicts that with the euro still undervalued a currency move towards $1.20 in the short-term and above $1.30 in the long-term can be seen. "This would be more likely if the ECB does begin to taper QE or consider rate rises later in the year, or the Fed slows down their rate hiking cycle."

    Meanwhile, CIBC's Stretch forecasts the euro heading towards $1.29 over the next 18 months if the ECB adjusts the deposit rate back to zero ahead of the end of bond-buying.

    However, strategists at Morgan Stanley have warned that euro strength could weigh on European earnings. In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote that a 10 percent rise in euro could knock 5 to 8 percent off euro zone earnings and shave about 0.7 percentage points off regional gross domestic product (GDP) growth a year later as exports fall.

    According to Thomson Reuters estimates, European earnings are expected to increase 12.4 percent in 2017.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/01/euro...e-to-come.html

  4. #4
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    Muito mais dolar weakness do que euro strength, IMHO.

  5. #5
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    Dutch economy expands at fastest rate since the start of the eurozone


    More signs of euro boom

    Dutch economy to grow by more than 3% in 2017

    The Czech economy was 2.3% larger in the second quarter than the first, while Sweden's economy grew by 1.7%

    Italy posts best annual economic growth since 2011

    Eurozone recovery aided by Dutch surge

    Paul Hannon
    Aug 16, 2017

    The Dutch economy enjoyed an export boom that helped drive an acceleration in eurozone growth during the three months to June, a sign that the currency area's recovery is becoming more broad based and less reliant on Germany and Spain.

    The eurozone pickup has come at an opportune time for the global economy, since U.S. activity has been slightly weaker than expected.

    The European Union's statistics agency Wednesday raised its measure of eurozone economic growth during the second quarter to 2.5% annualized from its first estimate of 2.3%, bringing it closer to the 2.6% recorded by the U.S., which it outpaced in the first quarter.

    "The eurozone recovery continues, and seems to be broadening out," said Fabio Balboni, an economist at HSBC.

    The bloc's strength during the first half of 2017 has come as a surprise to most economists, who had expected growth to slow in response to an anticipated rise in energy prices and heightened political uncertainty as voters in the Netherlands, France and Germany chose new governments.

    However, the rise in energy prices didn't last long and elections in the Netherlands and France--in March and May respectively--produced wins for pro-euro centrists and reduced the threat of a breakup of the currency area. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has a large lead in opinion polls ahead of September's elections.

    As Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte worked to form a new government, the country's economy surged in the second quarter, recording its fastest expansion since the final three months of 2007. According to the Dutch statistics agency, gross domestic product--the broadest measure of the goods and services produced by an economy--was 1.5% higher than in the three months through March and 3.8% up on the comparable period a year earlier. That was largely the result of a jump in exports, with overseas sales 11% higher in June than a year earlier.

    As a result, the Dutch economy overtook Spain's as the fastest-growing of the eurozone's five largest members. It had previously enjoyed steady if modest growth, expanding by 0.6% in the first quarter.

    The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis said Wednesday it now expects the Dutch economy to grow by more than 3% in 2017 as a whole, the first year in which it will have done so since the financial crisis.

    "The Dutch economy is well on the rise," the body said in its new report.

    The eurozone's pickup has also been supported by slightly stronger growth in Italy, which recorded a third straight quarter in which GDP rose by 0.4%. Compared with a year earlier, the Italian economy was 1.5% larger, the fastest rate of expansion since the first three months of 2011.

    Spain and Germany were largely responsible for driving the eurozone's modest growth between the start of the recovery in mid-2013 and the end of 2016. But the broadening of the recovery in 2017 has contributed to its acceleration.

    Eurostat didn't give details of the drivers of eurozone growth, but economists say national data releases suggest consumer and investment spending were the main factors, with exports playing a lesser role, except in the Netherlands and France.

    The strength of the eurozone economy has prompted economists to raise their forecasts for the year as a whole. According to Consensus Economics--which tracks forecasters--the average growth rate for this year projected by the 29 institutions it follows is now 2%, up from the 1.4% expected in December.

    The eurozone's acceleration has fueled expectations the European Central Bank will start to wind down its purchases of government bonds from January. However, there are few signs the pickup in growth has transformed the outlook for inflation, which is well below the ECB's target of just under 2%.

    "With the economy maintaining a healthy pace of growth, the ECB should feel fairly confident about tapering its asset purchases next year," Jessica Hinds, an analyst at Capital Economics, said. "But with GDP growth yet to boost inflation meaningfully, we doubt the bank will raise interest rates until early 2019."

    There are signs the eurozone's pickup is aiding other parts of Europe with which it has close trade and financial ties.

    The Czech economy was 2.3% larger in the second quarter than the first, while Sweden's economy grew by 1.7%. Earlier in August, the Czech central bank raised its key interest rate for the first time in nearly a decade, a milestone for Europe's central banks that have taken dramatic easing steps to prop up their economies.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eur...rge-2017-08-16



    UK

    And it’s gone: Pound stumbles to new low against euro
    https://t.co/vRYJ4IoQlY

    UK jobless rate falls to 4.4%, lowest since 1975. Average weekly earnings rise 2.1%.
    https://t.co/Nh5iasVrSO

  6. #6
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    Can Sterling Hit Parity With the Euro?


    The euro has risen by more than 25% against sterling over the last two years


    The British pound is already reaching seven-year lows against the euro, but some analysts believe the move has much further to run.

    Mike Bird
    Aug 16, 2017

    The British pound reached seven-year lows against the euro this week, with some analysts now projecting that sterling will fall to parity with the common currency—or further.

    The pound has risen by around 4% against the dollar this year, climbing to nearly $1.30, but against the euro it is down by more than 6% to below €1.10. Sterling reversed a little of that move Wednesday, rising 0.2% against the euro.

    Though sterling’s moves against the U.S. dollar often make the most headlines, the U.K.’s economic exposure to the rest of Europe give the pound’s movements against the euro a greater economic impact.

    David Bloom, HSBC global head of foreign-exchange strategy, expects both sterling and the euro to end the year at $1.20, while Morgan Stanley currency analysts see the pound actually dropping slightly below the euro by the early months of next year.

    Just two years ago the euro was hitting historic lows against the pound, when the European Central Bank’s QE program was getting under way and the Bank of England was expected to hike interest rates.

    Since the summer of 2015 the euro has appreciated by more than 25% against sterling. Britain’s EU referendum vote and the increasingly strong performance of the eurozone economy have reversed those fortunes.

    Central banks responsible for the euro and sterling have diverged, helping to drive the euro higher against the pound.

    Expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates in response to higher inflation have dimmed. In contrast, investors are increasingly preparing for the European Central Bank to scale back its bond-buying program.

    To be sure, sterling-euro parity is not a consensus call among analysts, and the recent view that the euro will rise is a sharp reversal for some. At the turn of this year, many strategists expected the euro to fall to parity with the dollar, rather than rise to above $1.17 as it has.

    Any decline in sterling against the euro has a greater impact on the British economy, because of the geographic proximity of the monetary union and close trade ties. The euro area makes up a full 47.6% of the Bank of England’s sterling exchange rate index, compared to 19.4% for the greenback.

    That means declines in sterling against the euro produces a larger reaction in terms of imported inflation, since more of the goods and services bought from outside the U.K. are denominated in euros than in dollars.



    The ongoing Brexit negotiations also pose a reason for sterling to remain weak against the euro, according to some analysts.

    “There are a number of ‘divorce’ stumbling blocks that need to be overcome before any transitional arrangement is signed, sealed and delivered,”said Viraj Patel, foreign-exchange strategist at ING. “Unlike previous times when we have traded beyond this key horizontal level—namely during crisis episodes—there are now fundamental reasons to stay here.”

    https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017...with-the-euro/

  7. #7
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    "To be sure, sterling-euro parity is not a consensus call among analysts, and the recent view that the euro will rise is a sharp reversal for some. At the turn of this year, many strategists expected the euro to fall to parity with the dollar, rather than rise to above $1.17 as it has."


  8. #8
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    Euro stumbles after ECB voices concerns over exchange rate



    Mehreen Khan
    2017-08-17

    Watch it go.

    The euro has extended its losses this afternoon, falling to its weakest level of the month, after the European Central Bank’s policymakers voiced concerns about the currency’s recent strength.

    In the latest set of policy minutes from its July meeting, the ECB said:

    Concerns were expressed about a possible overshooting in the repricing by … markets, notably the foreign exchange markets, in the future.

    That’s helped pushed down the euro more than 0.8 per cent against the dollar this afternoon to its weakest since July 27 and putting it on course for its worst day since March. The currency was trading around 0.5 per cent lower before the release.

    A stronger exchange rate poses a headache for the central bank by keeping a lid on inflationary pressures and dampening export growth.

    The euro has been propelled to its highest level since 2014 on a trade-weighted measure after Mario Draghi, ECB president, hinted in June that the ECB was gearing up to withdraw its stimulus measures having vanquished the threat of deflation.

    The currency effect is likely to be reflected in the ECB’s latest set of inflation forecasts which will be released at its September policy meeting. As it stands, the ECB expects inflation to average below target at 1.6 per by 2019.

    https://www.ft.com/content/3b673f92-...b-316a11ecfacd


    US first-time jobless claims fall to lowest since February

    Adam Samson
    2017-08-17

    The number of Americans filing for first-time jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level since February, underscoring the tightening of the American labour market.

    First-time jobless claims fell to 232,000 last week from 244,000 in the previous period, compared with Wall Street expectations of 240,000.

    The latest figures highlight the continued progress of the jobs market, even as the unemployment rate has hovered near levels that many economists consider to be the normal level in a properly-functioning economy.

    Still, despite the robust job gains, wage growth has underwhelmed, something that has been an ongoing concern among Federal Reserve policymakers.

    https://www.ft.com/content/d840482f-...f-ad06899dc50a

  9. #9
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    The ECB’s Good-News Problem: the Euro

    Richard Barley
    Aug. 17, 2017

    For a central bank, even good news isn’t entirely straightforward.

    The account of the European Central Bank’s July meeting, published Thursday, betrayed clearer concerns about the rising euro exchange rate than President Mario Draghi had shown at the postmeeting press conference.

    Markets have been on alert for a signal from the ECB that the sharp rise in the euro—up 11.1% against the dollar and 6.5% against sterling so far this year—was becoming a worry. The meeting account duly delivered, singling out the foreign-exchange market as being at risk of “overshooting” in the future. The euro dipped briefly in response.

    The ECB also acknowledged that the euro was rising for good reasons, including a reduction in eurozone political risk, a brighter growth outlook, and a reappraisal of U.S. interest-rate policy. And other financial conditions remain supportive, with bond yields still low and corporate-bond spreads tight.

    Importantly, the account also repeated a key element of Mr. Draghi’s June speech in Sintra, Portugal, that shook markets up. As economic growth becomes increasingly self-sustaining, it is less dependent on ultraloose policy settings.

    The ECB, understandably, is playing for time as it waits for more concrete evidence that inflation is firming. And it noted that with financial markets hanging on central bankers’ every word, a “steady approach to communication” is important.

    Markets have been focused on the euro because of the relative speed of its ascent since May. A further swift climb could give the ECB reason for pause. But as long as eurozone growth continues and other financial conditions remain supportive, the ECB will remain on track for a gradual winding-down of extraordinary monetary policy. Euro strength won’t be so easily upset.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ecb...uro-1502978201

  10. #10
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    "Euro rally will only speed its own reversal"

    Swaha Pattanaik
    July 21, 2017

    Traders push the euro up at their own peril. The single currency’s recent broad-based strength risks depressing import prices when inflation is still too low. Any hint that a stronger exchange rate could prompt European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to leave monetary policy loose for longer will force the euro back down again.

    The currency rose above $1.1670 for the first time in two years on Friday, extending gains triggered by Draghi’s press conference a day earlier. The reaction is odd, as the ECB chief said the central bank would be patient and prudent rather than rushing to scale back its bond-buying programme. Textbooks suggest loose monetary policy should boost fixed income securities but weaken the currency. Though euro zone bonds duly rallied, currency traders took a different view.

    One explanation is that foreign exchange markets took comfort from Draghi’s upbeat comments about the economy and his lack of any explicit concern about the euro’s recent gains. The single currency has risen by 5 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies since February and twice as much against the U.S. dollar. Asked about those moves, Draghi said only that the repricing of the exchange rate had “received some attention”.

    However, Draghi also said that the last thing the ECB wants is any tightening of financial conditions that might choke off the euro zone’s economic recovery. The rule of thumb is that a 10 percent rise in the euro’s trade-weighted value eventually shaves between 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points off the inflation rate. That’s not what the ECB needs: prices rose just 1.3 percent in June compared with a year earlier, still well below the central bank’s target of just under 2 percent. The more the euro strengthens, the greater the risk that the rally brings about its own reversal.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ec...-idUSKBN1A6161

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