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  1. #1
    WHT-BR Top Member
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    Dec 2010
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    [EN] Cersei made the right call

    Honour in Game of Thrones has been shown time and time again to be an over-rated commodity.

    Kadhim Shubber
    2017-08-29

    If you haven’t watched the season finale of Game of Thrones, and you intend to do so, stop reading now as spoilers abound in this post.

    The episode aired on Sunday centres around a meeting between the two opposing factions in the show, who have to decide whether to continue their feud or unite to defeat an even greater enemy: the army of the dead, led by the fearsome Night King and his White Walkers from the far northern reaches of the world.

    But in truth, it’s a decision for one person in particular, Cersei Lannister, current Queen of Westeros and a malevolent, dangerous person who has thus far destroyed nearly every person who has crossed her. Daenerys Targaryen, her would-be usurper, has come to offer a truce after seeing for her own eyes the vast zombie horde that threatens to overwhelm the kingdom of the living.

    It’s a classic prisoner’s dilemma. If Cersei and Dany continue to fight each other, both will be destroyed by the White Walkers and their army as they sweep south. If they work together, then they stand a chance of survival. The risk for each of them is that the other will stab them in the back, promising a truce and then breaking that vow while their opponent’s armies are busy battling the dead.

    Surprise! This is exactly what Cersei does. After pledging to send her armies north to fight alongside Dany, she promptly reneges. When the next and final season of Game of Thrones kicks off in 2019, we will no doubt find Dany shivering in the north and suddenly noticing the absence of a Lannister army shivering alongside her.

    This is clearly a dishonorable thing to do, but it is perfectly rational and the most advantageous strategy for a person who wishes little more from life than to crush all her (living) enemies. It’s also a good example of how negotiation’s balance on each side’s view of the risks and rewards. To her opponents, this is a life or death situation, where co-operation is a must. To Cersei, the risk-reward balance is different and there are advantages to refusing to play ball. (Just as the UK may discover in the Brexit negotiations with the EU.)

    For one, co-operation is no guarantee of success. While viewers of the show can probably assume that the living will win in the end, in the world of Game of Thrones the fate of humanity hangs in the balance. They may face certain doom divided, but they also face probable doom united. And Cersei Lannister, Queen though she is, possesses no magic weapon to save the world. Her opponent Dany, on other hand, has two fire-breathing dragons. (Though even these have proven vulnerable to the White Walkers — she previously had three.)

    So the offer on the table is not ‘live united or die divided’, it’s ‘live or die united, or die divided’. One is certainly more honourable, but honour in Game of Thrones has been shown time and time again to be an over-rated commodity. Given the uncertainty of success, the certainty of consolidating power while Dany is away fighting the dead has obvious appeal.

    Then what about the aftermath? Either Dany and her allies will be destroyed, or they will prevail. In the first scenario, Cersei will be left facing the White Walkers and their unstoppable force alone. She might reasonably conclude that if Dany and her dragons couldn’t stop the army of the dead, then her ordinary mortal army would have been little more than zombie fodder — her decision allowed thousands of ordinary people a little longer on this earth with their families before their inevitable death.

    And what if Dany succeeds? Then Cersei will be facing a living enemy just as hell-bent on her destruction as the enemy just defeated. In short, she will be back to square one at worst, with the added possibility that Dany’s armies will be heavily weakened by their fight with the Night King.

    There is a modified version of the prisoner’s dilemma, where the game is played over and over. In this iterated version, co-operation becomes more likely as double-crossing results in reprisals and the repetition allows for reputation-building.

    This is not the scenario in Game of Thrones. Winning means life, even if it is just for a while, and losing means death. If Dany defeats the army of the dead, then she will likely be too weak to punish Cersei for her betrayal, while Cersei will be left strong enough to destroy Dany once and for all.

    And if the dead prevail, there will be no honour or reputation for anyone to worry about. Plus, if it all goes wrong, Cersei can hop in a boat and start a new life in foreign lands. (The dead can’t swim… or build ships, apparently.)

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/08/...spoiler-alert/

  2. #2
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
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    18,563

    In the ‘Game of Thrones’ finale, a negotiation technique becomes a game-changer

    Personal finance and negotiation experts praise the preparation and persuasion tactics displayed on hit show.



    Jon Snow and Daenerys Targaryen redeem themselves as negotiators.

    Cersei, in contrast, commits one of the most significant errors you can make during a negotiation: She makes a false promise.



    Jonathan Blumberg
    29 August, 2017

    On the “Game of Thrones” season finale, “The Wolf and the Dragon,” Jon Snow and Daenerys Targaryen redeem themselves as negotiators.

    They meet with Cersei Lannister in the Dragonpit to persuade her that the army of the dead is a real and imminent threat. They are successful in convincing both her and her brother Jamie, the commander of her forces and her most trusted ally. And that ends up being enough to make a world of difference.

    Yes, as viewers discover, Cersei plans to cross them by doubling down on her forces with a mercenary army from Essos and taking back her kingdom when her enemies are vulnerable. But she believes them about the threat beyond the wall, and, because she does, she pledges to march her forces north. Her ploy ends up costing her Jamie, who had been the only sane voice left at her table.

    How are her enemies so persuasive? First off, they come prepared, which is key to any successful negotiation . “You do not want to walk in there relying only on your intuition or gut instinct,” says Harvard Business School professor and negotiation expert Deepak Malhotra.

    Daenerys’s team masterfully implements the show-don’t-tell presentation. This isn’t “death by PowerPoint,” though; it’s a compelling 3D spectacle, never short of visual aids or emotional appeal. The Hound sets loose the captured wight, which rushes straight towards Cersei. The queen clutches at the arms of her chair in fear.

    In this moment, Jon and Daenerys achieve something they had struggled with earlier this season when they first met on Dragonstone: They connect with their counterpart. They make an impact. And that’s crucial.

    In any negotiation, “you need to connect,” says personal finance expert Ramit Sethi .

    Just when the wight is about to pounce on Cersei, the Hound yanks it back and chops it in half, which only slows it down. The team offers a full-on tutorial on how to kill what is already dead. “We can destroy them by burning them,” says Jon. “And we can destroy them with dragon glass.”

    Even Qyburn, Cersei’s mad scientist, looks impressed. And it’s safe to assume he’s just about seen it all.

    Jon concludes with a resounding, memorable kicker : “There’s only one war that matters. The great war.”

    They do everything right. Cersei, in contrast, commits one of the most significant errors you can make during a negotiation: She makes a false promise.

    “The more confidence your counterpart has in your honesty, integrity and reliability, the easier you will find it to negotiate,” write Peter B. Stark and Jane Flaherty. Jon knows this. It’s reflected in his inability to lie, even when it seems he could do it for all the right reasons .

    Cersei has few close supporters or advisers left, only Qyburn, the silent Mountain and the unstable Euron Greyjoy. And who knows how long she will keep the Ironborn king around? Given his crude behavior and talking out of turn, it might be time to let him go .

    The eventual consequence for Cersei is that Jamie, who has stood by her for years and recruited her talent like the sell-sword Bronn, finally leaves. No matter what she gains from her deceit, her loss of him could be catastrophic.

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article...s-game-changer

  3. #3
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
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    18,563
    Como pode-se constatar na análise do post #1, felizmente para Cersei ela não foi assessorada pelos especialistas do post #2.

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