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  1. #1
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    [EN] O fim do BRICS

    Even with Modi back on board, China will find it hard to keep emerging markets club together.

    Like other catchy phrases used by Wall Street to woo investors it contains little geopolitical or institutional meaning. BRICS members shared no common historical or cultural backgrounds, no common vision and little economic integration.

    What the members shared was a resentment towards Western dominance over global affairs.

    Wendy Wu
    31 August, 2017

    The confirmation that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will show up in the coastal city of Xiamen next week has cleared a major obstacle to a “successful” BRICS leader summit – an event that China has been preparing for months to showcase its global influence.

    However, a ceremonial summit may not heal deep cracks in the club of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

    The member countries’ economic and social differences as well as their varying diplomatic priorities will continue to test whether the group can stand as a new bloc to challenge the dominance of rich democracies, led by US, Germany and UK, in the global order, analysts said.

    While China, with an economy bigger than the rest of the four combined, is trying to paint the bloc as an engine for global growth or even globalisation, the group’s fragility was laid bare in a tense border stand-off between China and India in the Himalayas, which was only resolved days before the summit.

    Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at a press conference on Wednesday that Beijing hopes New Delhi can “learn lessons” from the recent Doklam stand-off, a sign that rivalry between China and India still flare up again inside the small group.

    The original term of BRIC was coined by Jim O’Neill in 2001 when he was the head of global economic research for Goldman Sachs.

    Like other catchy phrases used by Wall Street to woo investors and the public – such as MINT, which refers to Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey, and PIGS, a term referring to the troubled countries of Portugal, Italy (or sometimes Ireland), Greece, and Spain during the European sovereign debt crisis – it contains little geopolitical or institutional meaning.

    Then the global financial crisis, starting from 2007, hit developed economies hard and the emerging countries of China, Brazil and India felt they need a bigger voice in global governance.

    At the G8 summit Hokkaido, Japan, in early 2008, China was invited as a guest but felt it was being sidelined or even insulted at the event, forcing Beijing to seek a new platform to exert its influence, diplomatic sources later told the South China Morning Post.

    The solution it came up with was G20 and the BRIC club.

    Unlike other international blocs such as the Commonwealth, ASEAN or European Union, BRICS members shared no common historical or cultural backgrounds, no common vision and little economic integration.

    What the members shared was a resentment towards Western dominance over global affairs. South Africa was invited to join in 2010 so that Africa would have a voice in the club, which represented emerging markets.

    China – which is the largest trading partner for 120 other countries – is the single most important member. It is a major trading partner for the other four BRICS.

    But its combined trade turnover with India, Russia, Brazil and South Africa was less than half of China’s trade with the United States in 2016, according to data complied by UN Comtrade.

    If China is taken out, the trade flows between the rest four are much less significant. For instance, Brazil accounted for less than 1 per cent of India’s trade, and less than 2 per cent of Russia’s exports went to India and only 0.6 per cent to Brazil.

    “BRICS is a limited framework that is showing more cracks over time. Coined to describe a group of emerging economies, the concept has been stretched well beyond its original meaning,” said Jonathan Hillman, a fellow at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

    Hillman said there was“more competition than cooperation” among some of the BRICS members and the economic component to the bloc has been proved less impressive than previously thought.

    To beef up the cooperation, a New Development Bank has been created in Shanghai modelled on the World Bank.

    The five countries have also agreed to set up a US$100 billion foreign exchange reserve pool with US$41 billion provided by China, a mechanism that could potentially take over some of the market support functions performed by the International Monetary Fund.

    The BRICS concept fell out of favour among the investment community after Goldman Sachs quietly shut its BRICS-themed fund in 2015. By then it had lost nearly 90 per cent of its value compared with its peak five years earlier.

    However, Beijing is trying to keep the idea alive on the geopolitical stage by holding ministerial meetings, signing papers promoting cooperation and making one speech after another that the BRICS are entering a golden decade.

    The zenith will be the leaders’ summit in Xiamen. It will be the first time Chinese President Xi Jinping has hosted the BRICS summit since he became the country’s leader.

    Xi spent three years in the city as a vice mayor in late 1980s as he started his ascent to the highest office.

    Xi will welcome Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, South African President Jacob Zuma and Brazilian President Michel Temer to the event.

    In addition, China has also invited the leaders of Thailand, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Guinea and Mexico to Xiamen, a gesture that China is open to the idea of expanding the club.

    At the sidelines of the summit, Xi is scheduled to meet Putin, their fourth meeting this year.

    They will discuss a wide range of issues such as bilateral ties, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s Eurasia Economic Union, according to Moscow’s ambassador to Beijing, Andrey Denisov.

    He said Russia is interested in taking part in transport infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, while he also admitted that Russia has not fully met China’s expectations in terms of economic cooperation.

    “Russia is just at the start of reindustrialisation and has a long way to go to adjust its economic structure. We’d better be objective towards China-Russia economic cooperation and not put too much hope in it,” said Cheng Yijun, a Russia expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

    Beijing’s pursuit of a flawless event is a key reason behind the decision to end the border row with India in the Himalayas – at least for now, analysts said.

    Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, said the resolution to the stand-off was “absolutely” in response to the upcoming BRICS summit. “If any country was under pressure, it was China, not India,” said Pant.

    He Wenping, an Africa and Asia researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think-tank in Beijing, said China has a bigger picture to pursue under the BRICS framework.

    “We can’t call off the meetings just because we have conflicts. We need to find common interests and be forward-looking,” the researcher said.

    She added that there was still a major opportunity for China to seek support from the other BRICS on issues such as fighting pollution and climate change.

    Lin Minwang, an expert on South Asia with Fudan University in Shanghai, said China should be cautious about potential competition with India in the future and should carefully select cooperation projects.

    There is an overlap between the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which was founded by China, Russia and four former Soviet republics and which India subsequently joined.

    The Shanghai organisation has been expanding areas from regional security to economic cooperation, Lin said.

    China, the world’s second biggest economy, still defines itself a developing and emerging market and is not willing to sit at a table reserved for rich industrialised countries, forcing itself to stick to a club that looks increasingly wobbly.

    “But institutions rarely die. More often, they fade away, losing influence even as meetings continue out of habit. A decade from now, I expect we’ll be talking less about BRICS and more about regional economic arrangement,” Hillman with CSIS said.

    Última edição por 5ms; 31-08-2017 às 12:51.

  2. #2
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    Brazilian president elaborates on three-pronged China visit in signed article

    Xiang Bo

    BEIJING, Aug. 31 (Xinhua) -- The Brazil-China ties are of great strategic importance not only for the two countries, but also for the rest of the world, Brazilian President Michel Temer said in a signed article published Thursday in Chinese media before he travels to China to attend a BRICS summit.

    The bilateral ties are mutually beneficial, with Brazil being a reliable supplier of agricultural products and raw materials and also a secure destination for Chinese investment, the Brazilian leader said.

    He expects to have discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang about further enhancement of bilateral trade relations and seeking new ways to bring closer the two peoples.

    Brazil hopes to simplify visa procedures, strengthen cultural exchanges and encourage tourism between the two countries, according to Temer's article.

    The two countries have jointly safeguarded free trade and voiced strong opposition to protectionist measures, he said, adding that they also abide by rules of the World Trade Organization and stand firm honoring their pledges under the Paris climate deal.

    Such identical or similar positions by the two countries on various issues show that they are not simply two countries bound together by their common interests, but crucial stabilizing force in multilateral frameworks.

    The second part of his China visit is to interact with entrepreneurs who intend to go to Brazil for economic and trade cooperation, Temer said.

    The Brazilian president said that he would have two good opportunities -- one is to attend a seminar held in Beijing by the Brazilian government, and the other is to attend a BRICS business forum in Xiamen.

    Since 2009, China has been the largest trade partner of Brazil, and China is Brazil's top export destination for the first half of 2017, accounting for one-fourth of Brazil's total exports, he said.

    In addition, Chinese enterprises have invested significantly in infrastructure, energy, mining, electronics, telecommunications and other areas in Brazil, he added.

    "What is greater than our existing economic relations is the potential for cooperation between us," Temer highlighted.

    Brazil will offer investment opportunities in multiple fields, such as ports, airports, highways and electricity transmission, and hopefully the Chinese enterprises which have outstanding performances in these areas are able to participate in Brazil's modernization construction, Temer said.

    The Brazilian president also mentioned that he will attend the ninth BRICS Summit in the southeastern Chinese city of Xiamen, meeting leaders from China, Russia, India and South Africa.

    "During the meetings, we will sign an agreement to strengthen ties with the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB)," which was founded by the BRICS countries and has so far approved 11 infrastructure and sustainable development projects in several countries, including Brazil, Temer said.

    He will also hold dialogues with leaders from Egypt, Guinea, Mexico, Tajikistan and Thailand.

    Temer noted that China was the destination of his first overseas trip after taking office as president. During that visit in September 2016, "I tell people about our plans to overcome the crisis," he said.

    After one year, Temer detailed the achievements made by Brazil, including keeping inflation under control again, a steadily falling interests rate, a more reliable economy, more business opportunities and more jobs.

    Brazil is now a more confident country, the one that has achieved tremendous progress and is heading in the right direction, he added.

    Última edição por 5ms; 31-08-2017 às 13:46.

  3. #3
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    BRICS Plus



    In March this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China would explore a BRICS expansion, known as "BRICS Plus," and build a wider partnership with other major developing countries and organizations, so as to turn BRICS into the most-influential platform for South-South cooperation in the world.

    According to Zhang Haibing, by uniting more emerging market economies, BRICS Plus would expand "the circle of friends" and enhance the resilience of BRICS cooperation.

    Lu Jing hopes that “flexible and diversified mode of cooperation can be explored through dialogue with other developing countries”, so that stronger growth momentum will appear in the emerging economies.

    Li Jianmin believes that the modality will help expand both bilateral and multilateral trade between BRICS nations and other developing countries, thus benefiting the emerging market.

    Li has also pointed out that one of the major obstacles to development in emerging economies is the lack of infrastructure.

    The New Development Bank (NDB), which launched business in east China's Shanghai in July 2015, offers a solution by financing infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies, Li added.

    As a bank established by world’s major emerging economies, it supplements the existing international financial system in a healthy way, and shows the growing role of BRICS and other emerging markets in the world economy.


  4. #4
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    India at 70: Avoiding traps

    If state control stifled the economy in the earlier years, today’s stern fiscal and monetary policies are doing much the same

    Ashima Goyal
    September 3, 2017

    As India completes 70 years as a nation, there have been a spate of analyses over the past and the future. Successes are many but if there is one cause of our developmental failures, it is uncritically grafting external thinking. This early trapped us on a state-led non-development path.

    The liberalising reforms have been a long struggle to escape its consequences. They brought in the advantages of more openness, competition and diversity. But there are signs that very conservative market-led thinking may be trapping us again on a slow growth path. The latest quarterly rate of growth has fallen to 5.7 per cent.

    Macroeconomic stimulus

    Such thinking asks for all kinds of reforms as a precondition for any macroeconomic demand stimulus. But waiting for the best to be achieved smothers the possible. A World Bank study on 13 developing economies that achieved above 7 per cent rates of growth for more than 25 years found their policies to be pragmatic rather than ideological.

    Indian monetary-fiscal stimulus, justified as part of global coordinated action after the Western financial crisis of 2008, did raise growth sharply, but inflation remained high. It is therefore argued that a demand stimulus today would raise inflation again.

    But there are differences between 2008 and 2017. First, inflation, especially food inflation was already high in 2008, and was pushing up wages. Much of the fiscal stimulus went to rural construction, which gave a further boost to food demand and to rural wages, generating a wage-price push. The growth boost was regarded, rightly, as consumption-led and therefore unsustainable. It fizzled out in 2011 as the macroeconomic stimulus was reversed, and the euro debt crisis decimated exports.

    A fiscal stimulus in 2017, however, is likely to have very different effects, even as softer commodity prices anchor inflationary expectations. First, the farm loan waiver will probably reduce rural demand, since it forgives past loans but reduces expected future loans and therefore consumption. Research shows that rural households reduce spending after a farm loan waiver. Food dominates in the consumption basket of agricultural labourers, but the middle class spends more on fast moving and durable consumer goods, where there is excess capacity. Since the pay commission award will go more to the middle classes it should raise output, not prices.

    When supply conditions are not adverse, output increases more from fiscal expenditure. It is true government investment expenditure multiplies output much more than consumption expenditure does, since it improves the supply-side as well as raises demand. But in conditions of excess capacity, as consumption uses capacity it will induce investment, so revenue expenditure can also have a multiplier effect. There will not be much of an aggregate fiscal stimulus, however, since the overall legislated cap on Central and State deficits will continue. There will only be a shift towards revenue expenditure. However, to the extent that innovative non-budgetary financial instruments are used more effectively and public sector undertakings invest, the fall in public investment would be moderated. Complimentary private investment and asset restructuring could add to this impact.

    Reviving credit growth

    Among current drags on growth is the slow rate of growth of credit. Many fin tech startups are using newly available data from digitalisation of payments and GST to quickly assess their credit risk and lend to small enterprises. But the corporate bond market and equity IPOs remain somnolent and banks’ lending to corporates has yet to revive. The deadline imposed under the Indian Bankruptcy Code plus flexible resolution plus injection of funds create good conditions for resolution and revival of stressed assets, as well as improvement in the credit culture. Since the IBC has been triggered, however, in the small window of time available before liquidation, current restructuring schemes must be allowed to work with full flexibility. Even as the stick of the liquidation deadline pushes banks towards resolution and revival of assets the carrot of easier resolution must be made available, supported by easier macroeconomic conditions. Lender and borrower needs could drive a flexible merging and fruition of on-going schemes.

    Fresh loans to stressed corporates, after resolution that establishes future viability, should be classified as standard to incentivise banks to resume lending. Research on macro-prudential regulations supports flexibility in restructuring schemes. It recommends relaxation especially where regulations are binding on provision of credit. PSBs must also adopt a risk-based approach to identify and lend to companies with good business prospects and let weak companies exit early. If the Monetary Policy Committee is following flexible inflation targeting then it must focus on inflation first and growth second, and it cannot bring in financial stability considerations. It is not correct to argue that lower rates will allow weak parties, with stressed assets, to survive. High rates have contributed to the build-up of unsustainable debt and falling interest coverage ratios. There has been too much strictness.

    It is true there is considerable froth in stock markets, but this cannot be an argument to keep interest rates high. Rather, regulation is required to encourage the cash over the option market, extend trading to more stocks, develop SME exchanges and make IPOs easier. That domestic savers as well as foreign investors are investing in stock markets makes for more stability.

    Education, health, agriculture

    The supply side has to improve for macroeconomic stimulus to be feasible. Improvements in public services, especially education and health, are still limited. But there is voter pressure now on better delivery. Niti Aayog can encourage competition and adoption of best practices in these State subjects. This will aid self-employment at higher productivity. This is the future of jobs for young people even in advanced countries as technology changes job structures.

    Agriculture is another area that requires attention. High value horticulture production that is expanding in rural areas is feasible at low scale, but it is high risk. As power supply improves, loans for processing and storage facilities can help farmers as well as provide jobs to rural youth. Farmers can get better prices, even as consumer prices fall, if intermediary monopoly margins are squeezed.


    "But there are signs that very conservative market-led thinking may be trapping us again on a slow growth path. The latest quarterly rate of growth has fallen to 5.7 per cent. "

  5. #5
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    Face It, China Totally Owns The BRICS

    Kenneth Rapoza

    Is it at all humiliating to the Russians, at least a little bit, that the Chinese are far and away the biggest, baddest BRICS nation? Russia used to be a world superpower. It's a world oil power. A world nuclear power. But beyond that, China is more relevant to the world economy than the Russians.

    Brazil. What about them? For years, the commodity bubble made it seem Brazil was on its way to becoming the runaway leader of Latin America, surpassing Mexico, which is basically a U.S. import market. Brazil was, and is, a more diverse economy than Mexico. They weren't dependent on any one nation, really. Then the commodity bubble burst and Brazil's purchasing power has dropped, putting it on par with China's. GDP per capita is also similar. China's Happy Meal toy making economy has grown up and is home to more new billionaires than anywhere else. And as leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa meet in Xiamen on Sept. 3, it is clear to everyone watching that China is the leader.

    Russia needs China because it is in a never-ending feud with the West. They have two things in common, generally: commodities supply and demand, and a desire for a multi-polar world, though this is probably more Vladimir Putin's thing than Xi Jinping's. China is at least as dependent on the U.S. as Russia is dependent on Europe.

    Brazil needs China because that's where all of its soybeans and iron ore goes. Brazil's agribusiness is vital to the economic recovery now just two quarters young. In May, China and Brazil launched a joint investment fund to increase productive capacity. The fund has an initial sum of $20 billion and will reportedly go to finance investment projects in Brazil (not in China) that are of interest to both countries. Brazil's president, Michel Temer, is already in China. He wants to convince them to buy airports and participate in other privatization bids as Brazil tries to trim more fat from its federal government.

    Following the recent border skirmish, India can probably do without China. India's main trading partners are the U.S. and United Arab Emirates. But if you include Hong Kong with China, then China is No. 2. More importantly, India's imports are heavily dependent on the Chinese. Some $59 billion worth of Chinese imports moved into India in 2015, more than the No. 2 Sweden and No. 3 U.S. combined. Bilateral trade volume between China and India also rose by 21.5% year-on-year to $47.52 billion between January and July 2017, Indian customs data show.

    South Africa needs China investment and Chinese buyers for its raw materials. China is its biggest export market, accounting for around $12 billion. That beats South Africa's No. 2 partner, the U.S., with around $7 billion in exports, both based on 2015 figures.

    China is a total beast. South Africa, Russia and Brazil are particularly at its mercy.


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  9. #9
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    A larger role in global governance expected of BRICS in its 2nd golden decade

    Qu Junya

    Amid changes in the global landscape, the BRICS bloc of five emerging economies is expected to play a larger role in global governance in its second "golden decade."

    Leaders from Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa are meeting on Sept. 3-5 at the ninth annual BRICS summit in Xiamen, China. They are expected to charter the future course for the bloc that now contributes more than half of the global growth.

    A sluggish global economy, a surge in protectionism in some Western countries, the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate deal, and geopolitical blackswans, among others, have posed new challenges and uncertainties.

    However, the situation also contains opportunities for building a fairer order in global governance.

    With the jungle law and the zero-sum game giving way to the shared aspiration for peace, development and win-win cooperation, "a large number of emerging markets and developing countries have come to the fore, playing an ever greater role in international affairs," Chinese President Xi Jinping noted during a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the BRICS Business Forum on Sunday.

    During the BRICS Xiamen summit, dialogues with Mexico, Egypt, Thailand, Guinea and Tajikistan will further build up the "BRICS Plus" model aimed at expanding partnership with developing countries in particular.

    The model is considered part of a bid to promote BRICS as a leading platform for South-South cooperation, which will help push inclusive growth and globalization while making development and benefit distribution more balanced and fairer.

    As a key player in this endeavor, the BRICS New Development Bank that focuses on infrastructure and sustainable development projects has just opened its first regional office in Johannesburg, and intends to open more.

    The BRICS' demands have pushed the progressive reform of the global economic governance architecture. For example, the voting rights of China and India are increased in the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

    There are also calls for the bloc to play a larger, more conducive role in solving regional and global political and security issues, and safeguarding peace.

    As "BRICS cooperation has now reached a crucial stage" in an era of development, transformation and adjustment, Xi urged the bloc's countries to work together for a second "golden decade."

    Expanding internal economic and trade cooperation based on mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, together with increasing cultural and people-to-people exchanges, is expected to help prepare a more stable and solid BRICS for a louder, stronger and even one voice on international affairs.

    The bloc is also seeking to enhance its mechanism building so as to shape a stronger partnership for a brighter future, as reads the theme of the BRICS Xiamen summit.


  10. #10
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010

    China Merchants Port to buy Brazil’s second largest container port for R$2.89 billion

    Transportation conglomerate China Merchants Port Holdings is buying a 90 per cent stake in TCP Participações S.A, the operator of Brazil’s second largest container terminal, for 2.89 billion Brazilian reals (US$920 million).

    Alun John
    04 September, 2017

    TCP and its subsidiaries operate the port of Paranaguá in southern Brazil, around 300 kilometres from Sao Paulo.

    China Merchants Port operates ports in mainland China and Hong Kong, as well as around the world in locations including Sri Lanka, Djibouti and the United States. The new deal is part of its expansion into Latin America.

    China Merchants Port’s parent company is the conglomerate China Merchants Group.

    “TCP is not only CM Port’s cornerstone to enter Brazil, but also the future hub of the rising commodity and goods trade flow between Brazil and China,” CM Port managing director Bai Jingtao said in a statement.

    The deal was announced during Brazil’s president, Michel Temer’s, visit to China for the BRICS summit in Xiamen.

    Corrine Png, chief executive of Crucial Perspective, a transport industry research firm, said that from a short term perspective China Merchants Port’s acquisition was not cost-effective.

    “This is a pricey acquisition considering that TCP was loss-making in 2016 and the implied valuations based on its 2016 net asset value and 2015 profits also look expensive.”

    In 2016, TCP made a loss of 7,954 rials.

    Png said that the deal looked more attractive from a longer term perspective.

    “Latin America accounts for 13 per cent of global container shipping trade volume and TCP is the second largest container terminal in Brazil. Good port assets are also rarely put up for sale,” Png said.

    The port of Paranaguá has an annual capacity of 1.5 million TEU, which is set to rise to 2.4 million TEU a year on completion of its expansion plan expected to be finished in 2019.

    In comparison, the port of Hong Kong has a capacity of over 20 million TEU.

    TEU refers to twenty foot equivalent unit, the standard measure of a port’s capacity, and is equivalent to a standard shipping container.

    Chinese outbound investment has slowed this year under tighter restrictions from both the National Development and Reform Commission, and the State Association of Foreign Exchange.

    However, last month the State Council issued new rules laying out which industry sectors were being encouraged, restricted and banned when it comes to overseas investment.

    Logistics was named as a sector that was encouraged.

    “Exporting China’s infrastructural capacity is in line with the official strategy and Chinese companies, especially SOEs (state owned enterprises), have been making significant investments in ports, roads and logistics companies,” said Vivian Lam, partner at Paul Hastings.

    So far this year, there have been nine outbound acquisitions by Chinese companies in the logistics sector, with a combined value of US$39.2 billion, according to Mergermarket data.

    China Merchants Port has been among them, and said in July it would invest US$1.12 billion to develop, manage and operate Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port.

    Png said she expected China Merchants Port to make more acquisitions in future.

    “Although this is a substantial acquisition, China Merchants Port Holdings can afford it, as it is well-capitalised. Even after funding for this TCP acquisition, China Merchants Port Holdings can easily shell out another HK$15 billion to fund future acquisitions.”

    Última edição por 5ms; 04-09-2017 às 12:18.

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