Página 1 de 2 12 ÚltimoÚltimo
Resultados 1 a 10 de 20
  1. #1
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573

    [EN] The Big Short II


    As China’s household debts soars, is it being stalked by subprime spectre?

    Many young homeowners in booming cities owe more than they earn, and some even falsify salary details to get bigger mortgages

    He Huifeng
    27 September, 2017

    Young Chinese like Eli Mai, a sales manager in Guangzhou, and Wendy Wang, an executive in Shenzhen, are borrowing as much money as possible to buy boomtown flats even though they cannot afford the repayments.

    Behind the dream of property ownership they share with many like-minded friends lies an uninterrupted housing price rally in major Chinese cities that dates back to former premier Zhu Rongji’s privatisation of urban housing in the late 1990s.

    Rapid urbanisation, combined with unprecedented monetary easing in the past decade, has resulted in runaway property inflation in cities like Shenzhen, where home prices in many projects have doubled or even tripled in the past two years.

    City residents in their 20s and 30s view property as a one-way bet because they’ve never known prices to drop. At the same time, property inflation has seen the real purchasing power of their money rapidly diminish.

    “Almost all my friends born since the 1980s and 1990s are racing to buy homes, while those who already have one are planning to buy a second,” Mai, 33, said. “Very few can be at ease when seeing rents and home prices rise so strongly, and they will continue to rise in a scary way.”

    The rush of millions young middle-class Chinese like Mai into the property market has created a hysteria that eerily resembles the housing crisis that struck the United States a decade ago. Thanks to the easy credit that has spurred the housing boom, many young Chinese have abandoned the frugal traditions of earlier generations and now lead a lifestyle beyond their financial means.

    The build-up of household and other debt in China has also sparked widespread concern about the health of the world’s second largest economy.

    The Chinese leadership headed by President Xi Jinping has taken a note of the problem and launched an unprecedented campaign in the second half of last year to curb home price rises in major cities by raising down payment requirements, disqualifying some buyers and squeezing the bank credit available for home buyers. The campaign is still deepening, with five more cities introducing rules last weekend that will freeze some property deals.

    Meanwhile, China’s financial regulators have launched an investigation of “consumer loans” in big cities because a torrent of consumer credit flowed into the property market after the government imposed restrictions on mortgage loans.

    Government policies are also protecting the interests of homeowners. City governments have squeezed land supply to keep land prices high and made secondary market trading less attractive, with new home buyers left to compete for a few new developments. Meanwhile, there is no property tax, which encourages homeowners to hold on to appreciating property assets.

    The result has been skyrocketing housing prices in Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai, where property prices can match those in Hong Kong or London.

    The lesson was that “if you don’t buy a flat today, you will never be able to afford it”, Wang, 29, said.

    Property ownership was now increasingly what separated the rich and the poor, the haves and have-nots, and the privileged and the underdogs, she said.

    And that means young people like Mai and Wang are scrambling for credit to buy property.

    In May last year, after the value of his first flat, a 70 square metre unit in Guangzhou’s Panyu subdistrict, soared from 900,000 yuan (US$136,500) to 1.2 million yuan in just a few months, Mai, who has a monthly salary of 15,000 yuan, decided to raise the down payment for a new property to cash in on the booming housing market.

    In June, he emptied his and his parents’ 300,000 yuan in savings and incurred debts to friends to muster the 50 per cent down payment for a 2.4 million yuan flat.

    To meet the mortgage repayments of about 12,000 yuan a month on the two flats, and other debts to friends, he used the first flat as collateral for a loan about 800,000 yuan and got 200,000 yuan in cash from a short-term consumer loans supposedly for a car.

    Mai got the money easily from local banks and financial institutions. Now, he needs to pay about 25,000 yuan a month for loans totalling around 3 million yuan, including around 4,000 yuan in mortgage payments for his first flat, about 7,300 yuan in mortgage payments for his second flat, nearly 9,000 yuan on the secondary mortgage for his first flat, 3,800 yuan for car loans, and the rest to service debts to family members and friends.


    (continua)

  2. #2
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573




    In Wang’s case, she borrowed 500,000 yuan from her parents, relatives and friends and sourced another 300,000 yuan from credit cards and consumer loans to pull together 800,000 yuan late last year for the minimum down payment on a small flat.

    She also borrowed 1.8 million yuan from a bank, with monthly mortgage payments of about 9,600 yuan – 80 per cent of her monthly income – for 30 years. To help cover the mortgage, her mother, a retiree who lives 4,000km away in a city in northeastern China, remits the bulk of her pension to Wang.

    “The debts are huge to me,” Wang said. “But a person without a flat has no future in Shenzhen.”

    In China’s world of debt, household debt is supposed to be much safer than corporate or local government debt. Outstanding household loans were the equivalent of 44.4 per cent of China’s gross domestic output last year, more than double the ratio in 2008 but much lower than in most advanced economies. The ratio is 87 per cent in Britain, 79 per cent in the United States and 62 per cent in Japan.

    But the figure could be misleading because it failed to reflect regional differences and it under-reported many hidden family debts in China, a recent report by the Institute for Advanced Research at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics said.

    Because Chinese household incomes were growing more slowly than property prices, families were facing serious liquidity problems, with increasing amounts of income and savings sucked into the property market, Chen Yuanyuan, a co-author of the report, told the South China Morning Post.

    Real household debt would have been the equivalent of at least 60 per cent of China’s GDP at the end of last year, Chen said, warning that the rapid rise in household debt was undermining China’s economic growth prospects.

    If it goes on, as early as in 2020, the ratio of mortgage debt and disposable income in China will reach the same peak level [127 per cent] as the US [in 2007] on the eve of the subprime crisis,” Chen said.

    The boom in China’s housing market since 2015 was the result of soaring household debt leverage, Jiang Chao, an analyst at Haitong Securities in Shanghai, said in a research note last month.

    China’s household debt to household disposable income ratio had soared to 90 per cent from less than 35 per cent in 2007, he said. Meanwhile, its household savings to household disposable income ratio had dropped from more than 30 per cent in the early 2000s to about 15 per cent last year.

    The latest data from the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, shows that at the end of May, domestic household savings deposits totalled around 63 trillion yuan while the amount of outstanding personal loans had soared to 36.4 trillion yuan, up from 8.8 trillion yuan in 2010.

    The Chinese tradition of saving money for a rainy day has been uprooted, and it’s not just that the younger generation, like Wang and Mai, are trying to spend before they earn. Their property buying frenzy has also been endorsed by their parents.

    “My mum is happy about my decision,” Wang said.

    Shenzhen is one of the most indebted cities in China. Data from Lianjia, the country’s biggest property agent, shows that Shenzhen property buyers took on a record amount of debt last year, with mortgage loans a feature of more than 93 per cent of purchases.

    Property buyers in the city spent an average of about 3.7 million yuan on their flat in the first half of last year, with mortgage loans averaging 2.38 million yuan, Lianjia said, resulting in an average loan-to-value ratio of just over 64 per cent. In Hong Kong, banks’ average loan-to-value ratio for new mortgages was 51 per cent in December, according to Standard & Poor’s, while in the US last year it was 55.5 per cent, according to Statista, a leading Web-based data and statistics provider.

    China’s first home buyers are, on average, younger than those elsewhere in the world, with most of those in Shenzhen in their 20s and 30s. On average, they need to pay about 10,600 yuan a month for 30 years for their first flat – or 13,000 yuan for 20 years – based on the current mortgage interest rate of 4.9 per cent. Meanwhile, the average white-collar salary in Shenzhen was 8,315 yuan last year and 8,892 yuan in the first quarter of this year, according to Zhaopin.com, a leading Chinese jobs website.

    “Chinese banks typically allow homebuyers to use up to half of their monthly incomes to repay mortgages,” said Julia Fan, a former state bank manager. “But the market in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai is full of buyers whose out-of-pocket property spending is much more than their actual monthly salaries.”

    Bill Duan, a manager at a Chinese investment bank, said it was not unknown for Chinese buyers to exaggerate their salaries or use fake payslips when taking out mortgages and loans, “and this may be when the problem starts”.

    “It’s known among industry insiders that local branches of the banks in many cities do not always double-check salary details with employers, even though the applicants offered salary certificates for several times the city’s average wages,” he said.

    Mai and Wang have been playing it fast and loose to deal with their debts.

    Mai has lent 600,000 of the 800,000 yuan he got from a bank after using his first flat as collateral to a money shark promising an annualised return of 20 per cent. Wang gave the bank fake documents showing her monthly income was 18,000 yuan – about 1.6 times her actual salary. It did not ask any questions.

    Neither see any problem, because the value of their underlying assets, the flats, have risen.

    The value of Mai’s two flats rose from 3.8 million yuan last year to 6.4 million yuan last month, while the value of Wang’s unit is now 2.93 million yuan, up from 2.6 million yuan.

    “I think I made a smart and successful decision to leverage debt,” Mai said.

    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econo...bprime-spectre

  3. #3
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573

    The Big Short I - I Bought a Condo and It Ruined My Life




    Nearly a decade after the collapse of the housing bubble, I'm still feeling the consequences.

    Mike Tunison
    Sep 25 2017

    At the age of 24, making $35,000 a year working as an editorial aide at a newspaper, I bought some real estate: a 770-square-foot, one-bedroom condo in northern Virginia. This was in 2006, when the housing bubble was at its most distended. It was basically the worst time to buy a piece of real estate—especially in the DC area, where inflated prices are the norm in any market condition. I avoided a subprime loan because I had the backing of my middle-class parents, but this was still a terrible, terrible decision.

    Eleven years later, I'm stuck in debt, besieged by bank fees and unable to get myself out of what has become a life-altering real estate clusterfuck. Even as the country recovers from the crash of 2008, the financial crisis is still dragging me down.

    Looking back, it's easy for strangers to armchair quarterback my path to financial ruin. I obviously wasn't making enough on my own to afford the place, and my career choice, print journalism, has never been known for its robust earning potential. And this was at a time when newspaper jobs were decreasing, and digital media jobs were still few in number.

    Nevertheless, my parents pressed me on the idea of home ownership. I told them I had heard there might be a housing bubble. They brushed it off. I worried what would happen if I suddenly had to move to another city for work, a very real possibility for someone starting out in newspapers. They told me if I didn't buy then, there was a good chance I'd never be a homeowner. I'm not sure that warning would bother me now, but it spooked me then. Bottom line, I was a 24-year-old being gifted with what seemed like a great opportunity. My parents were going to help me buy a home. Why say no to that?

    I was not what one would call financially disciplined back then—perhaps yet another reason why it wasn't such a great idea to buy a condo—but I figured if my parents, who both had government jobs dealing in finance and had worked in banking before that, were confident, it would work out. This was also an era when some people were making small fortunes flipping houses. I figured I could live in this place for a few years, move if I had to, and maybe come away with a little extra money.

    I was wrong: Today I'm still living in the condo, but just barely hanging on. I can't sell the place. Mine is one of about 5.5 million, or nearly 10 percent of all US mortgages, that are currently underwater, meaning I owe more than the property is worth.

    I'm struggling to stay afloat and taking on a punishing work schedule in a desperate attempt to stick it out and avoid foreclosure. The equity I've built is closing in on the point where it might cover the value the property lost in the crash. That's being optimistic. Even after more than a decade forking over interest on a mortgage, the idea of simply breaking even—getting away from this condo with nothing to show for it—sounds like a dream. But I'm worried I won't make it to that point, much less ever get close to owning the place outright.

    I recognize the privilege I had getting this chance, even as it's backfired on me. While no down payment was required to buy the place, my parents did put down a $5,000 deposit that they recouped at closing. That's not something a lot of 24-year-olds are able to do on their own. My parents also chipped in early with bills, with the expectation that I would take over completely within a few years. By 2008, it seemed like a sound strategy even as the crash decimated the property's value, lowering it by roughly a third. I had a great year, making six figures thanks in part to an advance on my first book. Sadly, there was eventually an ebb to that flow.

    I left a full-time editing job in 2015. I knew I was taking a risk trying to cover a monthly mortgage payment, among other bills, with income from freelance writing. Initially, I was making as much freelancing as I was at my prior job. Often, however, the glacial speed with which publications pay freelancers meant bills would come due before checks arrived, and I'd get dinged with $35 overdraft fees from my bank. The fees kept accruing, keeping me from saving any money even as I was ostensibly making enough to squirrel funds away. Then my freelance work started drying up early in 2017.

    I needed work that could pay me regularly enough to deal with monthly expenses. So for the past six months, I've worked two part-time jobs while trying to fit in paid writing assignments where I can. In one stretch this summer, I worked 60 days in a row. That was sufficient to cover exactly what I owe in bills each month. For food and day-to-day expenses, I've essentially been living off the tips I receive at one of my jobs. The problem is, unexpected needs here and there, along with the bank hitting me with hundreds in fees, have knocked me off schedule. I'm falling behind on payments. Barring a surprise job offer that would magically spur my earnings, I don't know how I'm going to make this work. My parents are now retired and on a fixed income. Even if I wanted to turn to them for help, and I don't, I'm not sure they could provide it.

    I would be fine with foreclosure, even though that would wreck my credit, simply to move on and extricate myself from this mess—but because my parents are also tied up in the purchase, bankruptcy or foreclosure would harm them as well. So with no ability to relocate for better work or lower monthly bills, I press on, at least for now.

    I take responsibility for the state of my career. I'm more than willing to admit I'm living beyond my means, except I can't do anything about it. What enrages me is putting more than a decade worth of payments into a home and still not having enough equity to be able to get out. I honestly would have been better off renting. I've had to sheepishly seek help from friends, ask Twitter followers to donate whatever they were willing, and beg a bank manager to partially release a hold placed on one of my paychecks. It's embarrassing. My annual income doesn't qualify me for poverty status, but I would imagine the constant financial stress is similar.

    A recommendation I often receive from friends is to rent my place, since the rental market in DC has climbed to absurd heights. The problem with that is twofold: The amount I could rent my condo still doesn't come close to covering my monthly payment, and to even be able to rent it out at market value, I would need to replace the carpet, repaint the walls, and get a new air-conditioning unit after the current one gave out this summer. None of those things I can afford to do right now.

    Earlier this year, one of the endless array of reductive takes about millennials made the rounds online, this one regarding my generation's tendency to eschew home ownership. The reasoning, put forth by some Australian millionaire I'd never heard of and hopefully never will again, was that millennials spend too much on frivolous things like avocado toast and fancy coffee instead of saving toward a down payment on a home. In no time at all, people pointed out the flaws in this argument: Experts say millennials are actually more frugal than boomers in their spending habits. It also doesn't help that since the crash, home builders have concentrated on high-end properties, and not the sort of starter homes young first-timers could afford.

    But my experience suggests another reason millennials don't buy homes. Maybe they just know what they're doing.

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/4...ruined-my-life
    Última edição por 5ms; 27-09-2017 às 02:24.

  4. #4
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573

    China says consumer loans can't be used to 'fuel property bubble', launches probes



    Shu Zhang, Se Young Lee, Yawen Chen
    September 29, 2017

    China has launched probes into consumer loans that are being misused for home purchases, warning they cannot be used to “fuel property bubbles”, a senior banking official said on Friday.

    “An important lesson of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was financial institutions lent excessively to people who were incapable of paying back the loans,” Xiao Yuanqi, chief of the prudential regulation bureau at the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), told a news briefing in Beijing.

    “China must prevent this tendency.”

    The investigations are being carried out by local offices of the CBRC and the central bank in some regions, Xiao said.

    He did not specify the locations, but two banking sources told Reuters last week that the banking regulator of China’s northwestern province of Shaanxi has ordered inspections of local banks to better gauge financial risks from illegal lending to the real estate sector.

    China has made reining in financial risks one of its top priorities this year, and taming soaring housing prices has been a key goal in the push to defuse property bubbles.

    China’s home prices have surged since late 2015, with the biggest cities including Shenzhen and Shanghai the first to see huge spikes in their markets.

    Home prices in smaller cities started to climb last summer as property curbs in big cities prompted speculators to look elsewhere. The rally spread to smaller tier-3 and tier-4 cities this year.

    While China has introduced a flurry of measures to dampen speculation, including raising the downpayment ratio in some cities, cases of savvy buyers skirting the rules have been reported by Chinese media.

    Short-term household loans in August doubled from July to 216.5 billion yuan ($32.57 billion), reflecting a surge in consumer lending as some home buyers may have turned to short-term consumer loans due to curbs on mortgages, analysts said.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN1C419K

  5. #5
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573

    Chinese money laundering

    ‘When confronted with the river of capital from a growing China, fund managers have to lose their innocence and accept that they are being used as a money laundering platform’

    Peter Guy
    28 September, 2017

    Players will always be playing. It’s most evident at the Four Seasons’ Lounge where almost all the diners speak only Mandarin. They are meeting with their private banking relationship managers, many of whom I recognise.

    It is an appropriate setting for my coffee with a senior manager at a global asset firm, where I confirm how current strategies in mainland China’s money laundering, or capital flow, or portfolio diversification - whatever it is called in discreet banking circles - has inflated a financial bubble in Hong Kong that could be as catastrophic as the 2008 mini bond and accumulator crisis.

    Chinese authorities have tightened up on the outflow of the yuan not only to combat high level corruption, but to prevent currency imbalances. Luckily, China still operates a relatively closed capital account and the movement and exchange of yuan is rigorously monitored and approved through authorities like SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) and the PBOC (People’s Bank of China).

    Here is how the “turn” works. A mainland client has millions or billions in yuan sitting onshore in China. He needs to move it cleanly without resorting to “smurfing”- a series of small transfers that take too much time, or the unsavoury task of transporting cash.

    His private banker instructs the Chinese client to deposit the yuan in a designated onshore account (in China) under the control or custody of the bank. At the same time, the bank lends them an equivalent US dollar amount, usually geared up, and deposits it in an offshore (outside of China, most likely in Hong Kong) account (minus a fee).

    The transaction is based on the client agreeing that the US dollar funds will be used to buy third-party or in-house asset management products. So these proceeds are usually channelled to buy US dollar fixed income products (minus another fee).

    You’d think that so far, the transaction would be profitable enough. But then, the private banker pitches the mainland client on highly leveraged, structured finance that is layered on top of his holding in the fund.

    It involves reducing price volatility, locking in returns and hedging for a period. Huge fees are charged again. Bankers tell me that mainland clients are especially naive about the impact of these fees on total returns, and are more interested in stability and quietly transferring their yuan offshore without raising regulatory flags- regardless of cost.

    And if you are laundering ill-gotten gains, the exorbitant fees are just a cost of doing business. After a period of time, the mainland client can convert his fund units into US dollars. The private banker walks away with lucrative fee streams.

    Clients don’t realise they are bearing tremendous risks as the leverage can involve 10 to 15 times the nominal amount to gear up returns from low interest rates. But, any sharp shift in rates can produce huge losses, arrested hedges and counter party defaults.

    Asset managers know that certain kinds of their funds are being bought in extremely high volume and being used as hosts for complex and risky derivative structures. And asset managers are not, to the best of their knowledge, being told by private banks about the derivatives being hooked up to their funds. Hence, regulators are not receiving complete reports and are largely unaware of the build-up of credit and systemic risk.

    Just examine the top 10 US dollar, fixed-income funds of unit trusts whose assets under management have soared from US$10 billion to US$40 billion to US$50 billion over the last two years. Inexplicable high growth in such a short period is usually a compliance warning sign. Large and liquid funds are usually targeted for their liquidity.

    Fund managers and their marketers are asked by their New York or London headquarters about the massive buying interest from Hong Kong, but the fee income overcomes any objections. While some asset managers may restrict frequent trading in their funds, most don’t care.

    Such a rapid ballooning of assets under management in a fund creates its own distortions and ripples through the market. Fund returns come under pressure as its increased funding crowds out specific asset classes. It could even force it to take unnecessary risks such as buying non-agency rated debt or increase returns through derivatives.

    The hidden problem is that the units of these funds are being misused for ulterior purposes.

    Experienced fund managers lament the diminished purpose of asset management- capital preservation and retirement planning. But, when confronted with the river of capital from a growing China, fund managers have to lose their innocence and accept that they are being used as a money laundering platform.

    Financial crisis are different each time they come around because regulators and risk takers are too focused on the previous crisis. And they fail to understand that it is called a crisis because it is an unexpected event based on malignant trends they overlooked. Or chose to ignore.

    Peter Guy is a financial writer and former international banker

    http://www.scmp.com/business/compani...-growing-risks

  6. #6
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573

    HK private home prices soar, HKMA chief warns against overheating market



    Venus Wu
    September 29, 2017

    Hong Kong’s private home prices climbed to a fresh peak in August, hitting highs for the 10th month in a row and extending gains to a 17th month, prompting the head of de facto central bank to warn against the risk of an overheating property market.

    Hong Kong private home prices climbed 10 percent during January-August this year, and soared 18 percent from the year-ago period, data compiled by the Rating and Valuation Department showed.

    The head of the city’s de facto central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, struck a note of caution against homebuyers piling into the market.

    “The risk of the property market overheating still exists,” Norman Chan, head of HKMA, told reporters.

    “Right now we are at a very abnormal state with very low interest rates,” Chan said, adding that people should be prudent because their mortgage rates could rise if interest rates increase in the future.

    The HKMA has introduced eight rounds of mortgage tightening measures since 2009 in hopes of cooling the red-hot housing market, but some homebuyers desperate to buy a flat before prices soar even more have instead turned to shadow lenders.

    The HKMA wrote in its Half-Yearly Monetary and Financial Stability Report on Thursday that home prices showed “signs of moderation” following the last round of measures announced in May, but said the residential property market outlook “remains highly uncertain” looking ahead.

    Taming soaring home prices in the Asian financial hub is the top priority for the city’s new leader Carrie Lam, who is expected to address the issue in her maiden Policy Address next month.

    Home ownership can be a distant dream for many in Hong Kong, one of the most expensive housing markets in the world, where a flat of less than 200 square feet can cost as much as $500,000.

    While the government focuses on increasing land and primary housing supply, analysts say tightening measures such as high stamp duties have effectively locked up the supply in the secondary housing market.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN1C41FV

    Sandy Li
    Friday, 29 September, 2017, 9:06pm

    ...

    Three residential sites in Kwun Tong, Sheung Shui and Kowloon Tong will be released for tender in the next three months, with a total capacity of 1,090 flats, said Michael Wong, the secretary for development, on Friday.

    ...

    Hong Kong’s home prices, already the most expensive in the world, rose for a 17th straight month in August, with the data coinciding with a warning from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) of mounting uncertainties in the outlook for the residential market.

    ...

    In one sign that the market is losing none of its lustre, New World Development had sold 30 out of 50 units at its Parkville project in Tuen Mun as of 3pm on Friday after sales kicked off in the morning.

    “About 40 per cent of our clients were born in the 1980s and 1990s, and half of them will rely on financial aid from their parents,” said Sammy Po, chief executive of Midland Realty’s residential market.

    http://www.scmp.com/property/article...x-months-spare
    Última edição por 5ms; 29-09-2017 às 14:20.

  7. #7
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573

    Warren Buffett

    Stephen Gandel
    Mar 11, 2016

    The National Archives on Friday released a bunch of new interviews and other documents that came out of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The FCIC interviewed lots of people about the financial crisis, everyone from CEOs like Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blankfein to The Big Short author Michael Lewis. Among the interviews released on Friday was one conducted with legendary investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett.

    ...

    Buffett also gave a long, thoughtful response to the question of what caused the bubble that caused the financial crisis. Here's a transcript:

    ...

    Brad Bondi [financial crisis inquiry commission]: What do you think it was, if you were to point to one of the single driving causes behind this bubble? What would you say?

    Warren Buffett: Well, there’s a very interesting aspect of this, which will take a minute or two to explain; but what my former boss, Ben Graham, made an observation, 50 or so years ago to me that it really stuck in my mind and now I’ve seen evidence of it.

    He said, “You can get in a whole lot more trouble in investing with a sound premise than with a false premise.”

    ...

    Now, we saw the same thing in housing. It’s a totally sound premise that houses will become worth more over time because the dollar becomes worth less. It isn’t because—you know, construction costs go up. So it isn’t because houses are so wonderful, it’s because the dollar becomes worth less, and that a house that was bought 40 years ago is worth more today than it was then.

    And since 67 percent of the people want to own their own home and because you can borrow money on it and you’re dreaming of buying a home, if you really believe that houses are going to go up in value, you buy one as soon as you can. And that’s a very sound premise. It’s related, of course, though, to houses selling at something like replacement price and not far outstripping inflation.

    So this sound premise that it’s a good idea to buy a house this year because it’s probably going to cost more next year and you’re going to want a home, and the fact that you can finance it gets distorted over time if housing prices are going up 10 percent a year and inflation is a couple percent a year. Soon the price action -– or at some point the price action takes over, and you want to buy three houses and five houses and you want to buy it with nothing down and you want to agree to payments that you can’t make and all of that sort of thing, because it doesn’t make any difference: It’s going to be worth more next year.

    And lender feels the same way. It really doesn’t make a difference if it’s a liar’s loan or you know what I mean? [Unintelligible] something because even if they have to take it over, it’s going to be worth more next year. And once that gathers momentum and it gets reinforced by price action and the original premise is forgotten, which it was in 1929. The Internet was the same thing. The Internet was going to change our lives. But it didn’t mean that every company was worth $50 billion that could dream up a prospectus.

    And the price action becomes so important to people that it takes over the—it takes over their minds, and because housing was the largest single asset, around $22 trillion or something like that, not above household wealth of $50 trillion or $60 trillion or something like that in the United States. Such a huge asset. So understandable to the public—they might not understand stocks, they might not understand tulip bulbs, but they understood houses and they wanted to buy one anyway and the financing, and you could leverage up to the sky, it created a bubble like we’ve never seen.

    http://fortune.com/2016/03/11/heres-...ancial-crisis/



    The lesson was that “if you don’t buy a flat today, you will never be able to afford it”, Wang, 29

    "They told me if I didn't buy then, there was a good chance I'd never be a homeowner." Mike Tunison, 24
    Última edição por 5ms; 29-09-2017 às 17:07.

  8. #8
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573

    1000 home seekers chase just 1 flat at Parc City



    Sandy Li
    05 September, 2017

    The odds were stacked against them. But in a property market as hot as Hong Kong’s that wasn’t enough to stop some 1,300 home seekers queuing for a chance to get their hands on just four flats in Parc City, Tsuen Wan.

    And according to estate agents, about 1,000 of them were after just one small unit.

    “It shows the market is really hot. About 80 per cent of these people are chasing after one small two-bedroom unit that costs HK$6 million,” said Sammy Po, chief executive at Midland Realty’s residential department.

    “Most of them were just trying their luck. It’s like hitting a jackpot in Mark Six,” he added, referring to Hong Kong’s popular lottery.

    A long line of potential buyers started to form at 9am on Tuesday outside the sales office in Nina Tower, as Chinachem offered the four units for resale after their original buyers walked away. Having paid their deposits, their bids were entered into a raffle to decide who would become a lucky resident of the sought-after address.

    The four flats, ranging in size from 427 to 850 square feet had been sold first time around on August 25 but the transactions did not proceed to completion. The original buyers had paid between HK$6 million and HK$14.4 million each, according to the website of the government’s Sales of First-hand Residential Properties Authority.

    The most sought after was the smallest unit, which was being offered for resale at the original price.

    One of the original buyers had backed out of a HK$6.04 million [US$ 770 mil] purchase of the 427-sq ft [40m2] flat on the 15th floor of Tower 8, forfeiting his HK$300,000 deposit.

    For buyers opting to pay cash, the selling price was cut to HK$5.89 million.

    Chinachem said the draw to decide the new owners was done by early on Tuesday afternoon.

    Po believes only a few of the people in the queue were there for the units costing over HK$14 million – the higher end of the scale.

    The biggest of the four abandoned transactions was the HK$14.4 million purchase of an apartment on the 45th floor at Tower 5. The buyer forfeited a HK$720,000 down payment, according to estate agents.

    The default cases come after Chinachem announced it had sold all 953 units, worth HK$9 billion, at Parc City in just two weekends, making it the most sought after new project since 2013.

    That would bode well for Hong Kong’s housing market in September, experts said, after it recorded the slowest growth in property prices in 16 months in July. That was taken as a sign that the breakneck pace of gains was finally losing momentum.

    http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-ko...lats-parc-city

  9. #9
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573

    13,700 buyers swamp Tseung Kwan O property project for just 403 flats




    Close to 70 per cent, or about 280 flats, had been sold as of 5pm


    Lam Ka-sing, Raymond Yeung
    Saturday, 30 September, 2017

    More than 13,000 prospective buyers swamped a Hong Kong property development in Tseung Kwan O on Saturday looking to snap up 400 newly released flats, despite a warning from the city’s Monetary Authority about “irrational” purchases.

    Long queues were seen at the International Commerce Centre in West Kowloon, where the sales office for developer Sun Hung Kai Properties’ Wings at Sea project is located. The company kicked off sales for the first phase of the Lohas Park development, east of Kowloon, at 9am.

    A total of 13,700 would-be buyers registered for a chance to purchase one of 403 flats, which will be released in three batches. The average price of a property in the development is over HK$14,000 per sq ft (US$ 20 mil / m2), a record for the Lohas Park area.

    “Some parents are helping their children buy properties [so the parents] can avoid the double stamp duty incurred if they were to buy a second property,” said Louis Chan, Asia-Pacific vice-chairman and managing director for residential sales at Hong Kong property agent Centaline. He said he estimated about half of the customers were first-time buyers receiving help from their parents.

    “The starter home scheme pledged by Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor has made buyers hesitate recently,” he said, referring to a coming subsidised housing scheme announced by Hong Kong’s leader that will aim to help young residents get on the property ladder.

    “Therefore the response to new projects has become less intense, but it will take three to four years to find land and build these starter homes, so the scheme will not affect the immediate shortage of housing or reduce property prices dramatically for now.”

    The enthusiasm from prospective buyers continued a day after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority released its latest half-yearly monetary and financial stability report, which highlighted the growing trend for young homebuyers to rely on help from their parents. That support even included taking out mortgages on a family’s main residence to fund flat purchases, the authority said.

    Norman Chan Tak-lam, the head of the Monetary Authority, speaking on a radio programme on Saturday morning, said it was “very irrational” to enter the market based on expectations that home prices would never go down.

    “Judging from Hong Kong’s history and property markets around the world, I have yet to see a market which only goes up and not down, or one which only goes down and not up,” he said.

    He would not rule out another round of tightening measures on property mortgage loans, as he said there were no signs of a downward cycle in the market at the moment.

    “If the upward cycle continues, our regulatory measures will continue to tighten.”

    One eager buyer for Wings at Sea was a middle-aged man surnamed Cheung, who was looking for a two-bedroom flat for about HK$5 million for his son. He shrugged off the authority’s warning.

    “I don’t think what [Norman] Chan said is true. I believe housing prices in the city will still continue to rise moderately,” he said.

    Sun Hung Kai Properties, Hong Kong’s largest developer by market value, usually sets a price benchmark when it launches projects. Prices for developments at Tseung Kwan O’s Lohas Park have been capped by its proximity to a landfill site and lack of commercial facilities.

    The first 208 units at Wings at Sea, about a 10-minute walk to Lohas Park MTR station, have an average discounted price of HK$12,788 per sq ft – the highest starting price of any development launch in the area, where close to 10,000 units are under construction. Prices for the second batch of 105 flats announced on Saturday were 10 per cent higher, at an average of HK$14,063 per sq ft, since they offer sea views.

    The third batch is being sold at HK$15,145 per sq ft, 18 per cent higher than the first batch.

    Meanwhile, Henderson Land Development has sold a 5,000 sq ft (465 m2) duplex unit at 39 Conduit Road in the upmarket Mid-Levels neighbourhood for a record price in Asia of HK$521.95 million (US$ 67 milhões), or HK$105,000 per sq ft (US$ 145 mil / m2).

    Statistics from the government’s Rating and Valuation Department show home prices reached an all-time high in August after 17 consecutive months of increases.

    The Monetary Authority report pointed out that many families, especially those with a weaker financial capacity, would be susceptible to market shocks.

    At 3pm on Saturday there were still long queues at the Wings at Sea sales office, but the crowds had finally vanished by 4.30pm.

    Close to 70 per cent, or about 280 flats, had been sold as of 5pm, with prices starting from HK$4.3 million (US$ 550 mil).

    http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/e...oject-just-400

    Última edição por 5ms; 30-09-2017 às 13:03.

  10. #10
    WHT-BR Top Member
    Data de Ingresso
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    18,573

    off-topic: Preços em Hong Kong


    Hong Kong is raising foreign domestic helpers’ salaries to HK$4,410

    Yonden Lhatoo
    30 September, 2017

    Let the trumpet sound and the city rejoice. Hong Kong is raising foreign domestic helpers’ salaries by a whopping HK$100 per month.

    The monthly minimum wage for indentured servitude is going up by 2.3 per cent to HK$4,410.

    ...

    As far as the government is concerned, it’s all fair and square, “having taken into account Hong Kong’s near-term economic outlook, as well as affordability for employers on the one hand and the livelihood of foreign domestic helpers on the other”.

    The last pay rise for them was another HK$100 increment a year ago, so I guess everyone’s conscience is clean.

    Such generosity in a city where you’re assaulted daily by privilege, affluence and crass consumerism all around.

    This wage increase breaks down to HK$25 a week. What can you buy in “Asia’s world city” for such a princely sum these days?

    When the new minimum hourly wage of HK$34.50 (for the rest of us, not foreign domestic helpers) took effect in May, there was no shortage of outrage over the stinginess of a HK$2 increase from the level set two years ago.

    We put it into context by pointing out that it wasn’t even enough to pay for a single MTR trip from Hung Hom to Lo Wu (HK$38.10), two choices of roasted meat with rice at fast food chain Fairwood (HK$38), a medium-sized caffè latte at Starbucks (HK$38) or a pork chop bun at Tsui Wah cha chaan teng (HK$42).


    Single MTR trip from Hung Hom to Lo Wu: US$ 5

    Try putting that extra HK$25 a week into context, considering that helpers’ working hours are effectively unlimited, because, as live-in help, they’re on call any time of day or night.

    Public opinion is divided, as reflected in our ever-boisterous comments section.

    “Domestic helpers in Hong Kong are essentially immune to inflation. Rent, utilities and food are all paid for by the employer. Hong Kong is one of the most expensive cities in the world. It is the employer who is bearing the burden of rising costs of living in Hong Kong,” writes one reader.

    Another writes: “I do not think that we are kidnapping foreign domestic helpers and forcing them to work here in Hong Kong. This is the salary we offer and they can choose.”

    To which a more sympathetic reader replies: “Domestic helpers do come to work voluntarily, and they are getting a better salary than they do at home. But a civilised society knows that there should be a limit to using people’s needs against them.”

    Another adds: “Many enlightened employers already pay well above the minimum, so let’s set a higher bar for all to rid us of this shame.”



    I remember the ruckus back in 2011 over a photograph of a Singaporean military recruit in full uniform with his maid lugging his big backpack for him.

    There was serious soul searching over whether this was a nation of “softies”, as well as some hilarious parody, such as photoshopped images of Singaporeans soldiers marching to war in serried ranks, with lines of domestic helpers following in formation, carrying their military field packs like army mules.

    We pay our helpers better than Singapore, but, alas, we tend to exploit indentured servitude just as much.

    Take, for example, the latest survey showing that 80 per cent of primary pupils in Hong Kong are carrying school bags that are way too heavy for them.

    Poor kids, but guess who’s lugging all that luggage. Pay them, properly, for pity’s sake.

    http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-...-were-generous

Permissões de Postagem

  • Você não pode iniciar novos tópicos
  • Você não pode enviar respostas
  • Você não pode enviar anexos
  • Você não pode editar suas mensagens
  •